Ligue 1: 2027 Champion
核心摘要
根据「Ligue 1: 2027 Champion」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Paris Saint-Germain 以压倒性的 7,750% 获胜概率主导市场；Monaco 以 850% 位居第二，Lille 以 505% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $345.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Paris Saint-Germain (7,750%)：Paris Saint-Germain 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,750¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $87.8K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Monaco (850%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Monaco 保持着 850% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 850¢。
- Lille (505%)：以 505% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Lille 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Lens (365%)、Lyon (325%)，以及 Marseille (245%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Rennes 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 7750.0% | $87.8K | 7750¢ | -7650¢ |
| 2 | Monaco | 850.0% | $28.9K | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 3 | Lille | 505.0% | $25.1K | 505¢ | -405¢ |
| 4 | Lens | 365.0% | $28.8K | 365¢ | -265¢ |
| 5 | Lyon | 325.0% | $26.7K | 325¢ | -225¢ |
| 6 | Marseille | 245.0% | $43.1K | 245¢ | -145¢ |
| 7 | Rennes | 205.0% | $20.6K | 205¢ | -105¢ |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 65.0% | $23.0K | 65¢ | 35¢ |
| 9 | Paris FC | 50.0% | $14.6K | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 10 | Angers | 5.0% | $3.9K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 11 | Auxerre | 5.0% | $3.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 12 | Brest | 5.0% | $4.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 13 | Le Havre | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 14 | Nice | 5.0% | $10.7K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 15 | Toulouse | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 16 | Lorient | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 17 | Troyes | 5.0% | $11.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 18 | Le Mans | 5.0% | $4.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship per the rules of Ligue 1 (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from Ligue 1; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 7, 2026
- 10:05 PMSHshoobadooba18$0.11
Sold 0.53 No for Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.21
- 10:04 PMPApablomaresk$200.00
Bought 256.410254 Yes for Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.78
- 10:04 PMSHshoobadooba18$6.32
Bought 8 Yes for Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.79
- 09:25 PM0X0x2F5057A272D5D2DAeCc622055037c21879d163a7-1784668294400$16.12
Sold 20.93 Yes for Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.77
- 07:39 PMHJHjklm$5.11
Bought 56.8 Yes for Will Monaco win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.09
- 07:38 PMDOdonthackme$5.81
Bought 6.050139 No for Will Lille win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.96
- 07:38 PM——$5.44
Bought 5.44 No for Will Paris FC win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 1
- 07:38 PMLULucerys$6.00
Bought 6 No for Will Paris FC win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 1
- 07:38 PM——$5.39
Bought 5.44 No for Will Strasbourg win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.99
- 07:38 PMDOdonthackme$6.00
Bought 6.056333 No for Will Strasbourg win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.99
- 07:38 PMLULucerys$5.94
Bought 6 No for Will Strasbourg win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.99
- 07:38 PM——$5.33
Bought 5.44 No for Will Rennes win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? at 0.98
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Ligue 1: 2027 Champion」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Paris Saint-Germain 以 7,750% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Monaco（850%），以及 Lille（505%）。该市场总成交量已达 $345.6K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。