
LALIGA: 2027 Champion
核心摘要
根据「LALIGA: 2027 Champion」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Barcelona 以压倒性的 6,650% 获胜概率主导市场;Real Madrid 以 3,150% 位居第二,Atlético Madrid 以 205% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $5.3M,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Barcelona (6,650%):Barcelona 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,650¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $333.9K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Real Madrid (3,150%):作为最可行的替代选项,Real Madrid 保持着 3,150% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,150¢。
- Atlético Madrid (205%):以 205% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Atlético Madrid 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Betis (35%)、Villarreal (25%),以及 Alavés (15%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Athletic Bilbao 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 6650.0% | $333.9K | 6650¢ | -6550¢ |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 3150.0% | $478.4K | 3150¢ | -3050¢ |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 205.0% | $336.9K | 205¢ | -105¢ |
| 4 | Betis | 35.0% | $161.9K | 35¢ | 65¢ |
| 5 | Villarreal | 25.0% | $305.9K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 6 | Alavés | 15.0% | $308.3K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 15.0% | $218.4K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 15.0% | $273.9K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 9 | Espanyol | 15.0% | $260.0K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 10 | Getafe | 15.0% | $270.8K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 11 | Osasuna | 15.0% | $264.2K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 15.0% | $275.9K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 15.0% | $241.2K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 14 | Sevilla | 15.0% | $286.7K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 15 | Valencia | 15.0% | $293.8K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 16 | Levante | 15.0% | $258.3K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 15.0% | $347.4K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña | 15.0% | $278.3K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 19 | Elche | 5.0% | $66.5K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 20 | Málaga | 5.0% | $65.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 21 | Team C | 5.0% | $3.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship per the rules of LALIGA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 LALIGA season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from LALIGA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 07:31 AMMTmt6eu55w$5.17
Bought 5.28 No for Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 0.98
- 07:21 AM——$1.96
Bought 2.925372 Yes for Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 0.67
- 07:20 AM——$0.75
Sold 1.13 Yes for Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 0.66
- 07:08 AMPEperddiccas$200.00
Bought 625 Yes for Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 0.32
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.25
Bought 10.25 No for Will Deportivo La Coruña win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 1
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.25
Bought 10.25 No for Will Levante win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 1
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.25
Bought 10.25 No for Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 1
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.25
Bought 10.25 No for Will Celta Vigo win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 1
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.05
Bought 10.25 No for Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 0.98
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.25
Bought 10.25 No for Will Racing Santander win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 1
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.25
Bought 10.25 No for Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 1
- 06:57 AMMEmerod$10.25
Bought 10.25 No for Will Valencia win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? at 1
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「LALIGA: 2027 Champion」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Barcelona 以 6,650% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Real Madrid(3,150%),以及 Atlético Madrid(205%)。该市场总成交量已达 $5.3M,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
