Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

根据「Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，August 31 以压倒性的 4.1% 获胜概率主导市场；July 31 以 1.7% 位居第二，June 30 以 0.1% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $60.6M，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• August 31 (4.1%)：August 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $322.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• July 31 (1.7%)：作为最可行的替代选项，July 31 保持着 1.7% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2¢。
• June 30 (0.1%)：以 0.1% 的概率位列第三，市场对 June 30 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 July 31 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 1.7% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 4.1%——形成可观的 +2.5% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 June 30（EV 差：+1%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。