Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?

根据「Jensen Huang resigned or removed & Nvidia above $4T end of 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Resigned/removed; Over $4T 以压倒性的 56% 获胜概率主导市场；Resigned/removed; Under $4T 以 44% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $145.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Resigned/removed; Over $4T (56%)：Resigned/removed; Over $4T 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 56¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $40.7K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Resigned/removed; Under $4T (44%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Resigned/removed; Under $4T 保持着 44% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 44¢。

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET and (2) whether Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 is above $4 trillion.

Options beginning "Resigned/removed" require Jensen Huang’s departure through resignation or removal as CEO of NVIDIA to be officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Options beginning "Not resigned/removed" require no such announcement by that time. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Over $4T" or "Under $4T"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".

Jensen Huang resignation or removal: The departure will be considered to be announced when Jensen Huang, NVIDIA, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Huang has resigned or been removed, or will resign or be removed, as CEO of NVIDIA. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position; resignation includes retiring or stepping down as CEO, including to take another role at NVIDIA, and removal includes dismissal or termination by NVIDIA’s Board of Directors.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure through resignation or removal intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term through such a departure without a qualifying announcement, this component will be "Resigned/removed" if a qualifying resignation or removal occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the specified person ceases to hold the specified position by any other means, this component will be "Not resigned/removed".

The primary resolution sources for this component will be official information from Jensen Huang and NVIDIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nvidia market cap: This component is "Over $4T" if Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 is $4 trillion or greater. Otherwise, it is "Under $4T".

Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this component is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Resigned/removed; Over $4T 当前交易价为 56%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 43.4%，形成 -12.7% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。