
Jensen Huang divorce by...?
核心摘要
根据「Jensen Huang divorce by...?」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,December 31, 2026 以压倒性的 9.5% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $210.3K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- December 31, 2026 (9.5%):December 31, 2026 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 10¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $207.9K 的成交量。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 9.5% | $207.9K | 10¢ | 91¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jensen or Lori Huang file for divorce or announce their definitive intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from either Lori or Jensen Huang, or their official authorized representatives, of their definitive intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when or whether the divorce ultimately occurs. Announcements that they are considering or open to a divorce will not qualify.
The resolution source will be statements from Jensen Huang and/or Lori Huang, and their representatives, as well as relevant court records; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析:发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场,而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布,我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比,可揭示出重大背离——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果,而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算,以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离:
- 最被高估的结果:December 31, 2026 当前交易价为 9.5%,但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 9.1%,形成 -0.4% 的较大负 EV 差,表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 9.5% | 9.1% | -0.4% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Nov 10, 2026
- 12:01 AMLEleverage-trading-predmart$9.10
Sold 10.11 No for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.9
Nov 9, 2026
- 11:55 PMLEleverage-trading-predmart$9.10
Bought 10.111112 No for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.9
- 11:40 PMNENederby123$8.90
Bought 10 No for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.89
- 11:31 PMJUJustThink.$5.01
Bought 41.75 Yes for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.12
- 11:30 PMJUJustThink.$5.50
Bought 50 Yes for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.11
- 11:27 PM0X0xA4C415134B9a2bF11a08B5F52cB77AF900F2e42D-1766616940921$20.00
Sold 199.99 Yes for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.1
- 11:13 PMMAmarketmover-344$6.12
Bought 6.8 No for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.9
- 10:58 PMTRTrumppicker$9.63
Bought 87.5 Yes for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.11
- 09:49 PMSUSulkingCrypto$2.04
Sold 22.63 Yes for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.09
- 09:46 PMZIZirlo$9.00
Bought 100 Yes for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.09
- 09:43 PM——$0.06
Sold 0.07 No for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.91
- 09:43 PMKLklli27$0.40
Sold 5 Yes for Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026? at 0.08
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Jensen Huang divorce by...?」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,December 31, 2026 以 9.5% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $210.3K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同?
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算,剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差,提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度?
是的——数据显示市场对 December 31, 2026 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 9.5%,但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 9.1%,形成 -0.4% 的负 EV 差,表明该合约被高估。
