Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

根据「Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 47.5% 获胜概率主导市场；November 30 以 42% 位居第二，November 15 以 27.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $104.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (47.5%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 48¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $5.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• November 30 (42%)：作为最可行的替代选项，November 30 保持着 42% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 42¢。
• November 15 (27.5%)：以 27.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 November 15 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 October 31 (7.3%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 October 31 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period during which neither the Houthis nor Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against the other, following a qualifying military action (or market creation) that occurs on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

Only qualifying military actions that occur after market creation count. The 14-day period starts on the calendar day (ET) after the most recent qualifying action, or on the date of market creation if none has occurred after market creation. The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. Each new qualifying action restarts the count.

This market resolves to "Yes" if such a full 14-day period is completed following either market creation or a qualifying action that occurred on or before the specified date (ET).

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that is either initiated by the Houthis and directly impacts Saudi Arabia, or initiated by Saudi Arabia and directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia or Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters, and “Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia or Yemen respectively as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：November 30 当前交易价为 42%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 31.3%，形成 -10.7% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 October 31 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 7.3% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 7.4%——形成可观的 +0.1% EV 差。