Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
核心摘要
根据「Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，No 以压倒性的 8,750% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 1,250% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $340，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- No (8,750%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,750¢，显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Yes (1,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 1,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,250¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No | 8750.0% | — | 8750¢ | -8650¢ |
| 2 | Yes | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gianni Infantino ceases to be the president of FIFA for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement of Infantino's resignation or firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or firing goes into effect. Announcements of intention to resign will qualify, regardless of if or when the resignation goes into effect.
Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA or Gianni Infantino, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
常见问题
当前市场对「Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，No 以 8,750% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Yes（1,250%）。该市场总成交量已达 $340，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。