Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

根据「Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，August 31 以压倒性的 1,000% 获胜概率主导市场；July 31 以 270% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $1.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• August 31 (1,000%)：August 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 1,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $646 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• July 31 (270%)：作为最可行的替代选项，July 31 保持着 270% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 270¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.