Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

根据「Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No 以压倒性的 9,845% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 155% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $136.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No (9,845%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,845¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Yes (155%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 155% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 155¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.

"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.