
EPL: 2027 Champion
核心摘要
根据「EPL: 2027 Champion」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Arsenal 以压倒性的 5,250% 获胜概率主导市场;Manchester City 以 2,650% 位居第二,Chelsea 以 1,050% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $15.1M,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Arsenal (5,250%):Arsenal 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,250¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $841.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Manchester City (2,650%):作为最可行的替代选项,Manchester City 保持着 2,650% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2,650¢。
- Chelsea (1,050%):以 1,050% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Chelsea 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Liverpool (550%)、Manchester United (450%),以及 Aston Villa (45%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Brighton 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5250.0% | $841.5K | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 2 | Manchester City | 2650.0% | $2.1M | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 3 | Chelsea | 1050.0% | $732.8K | 1050¢ | -950¢ |
| 4 | Liverpool | 550.0% | $607.6K | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 5 | Manchester United | 450.0% | $573.8K | 450¢ | -350¢ |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 45.0% | $531.8K | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 7 | Brighton | 45.0% | $642.7K | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 8 | Tottenham | 45.0% | $1.0M | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 9 | Brentford | 35.0% | $1.0M | 35¢ | 65¢ |
| 10 | Newcastle United | 35.0% | $713.3K | 35¢ | 65¢ |
| 11 | Hull City | 25.0% | $940.9K | 25¢ | 75¢ |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 15.0% | $613.1K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 15.0% | $1.0M | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 14 | Everton | 15.0% | $404.0K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 15 | Fulham | 15.0% | $481.7K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 16 | Leeds United | 15.0% | $434.4K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 15.0% | $663.0K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 18 | Sunderland | 15.0% | $655.5K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 19 | Coventry City | 15.0% | $600.5K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
| 20 | Ipswich Town | 15.0% | $503.6K | 15¢ | 85¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship per the rules of English Premier League (EPL) (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) season is cancelled, postponed after June 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be official information from English Premier League (EPL); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常见问题
当前市场对「EPL: 2027 Champion」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Arsenal 以 5,250% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Manchester City(2,650%),以及 Chelsea(1,050%)。该市场总成交量已达 $15.1M,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
