Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?

根据「Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 以压倒性的 96.8% 获胜概率主导市场；Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds 以 2.9% 位居第二，No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 以 0.3% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $96.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken (96.8%)：Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 97¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $40.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds (2.9%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds 保持着 2.9% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3¢。
• No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken (0.3%)：以 0.3% 的概率位列第三，市场对 No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds (0.1%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of (1) whether the Democratic Party wins control of both the United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election and (2) whether the United States refrains from a qualifying military action against Iran through the end of 2027.

Options beginning "Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party to win control of both chambers. Options beginning "No Dem sweep" require the Democratic Party not to win control of at least one of the two chambers. Each option then names the result of the second component ("Ceasefire holds" or "Ceasefire broken"), as defined below. The option matching both results will resolve to "Yes", and all other options will resolve to "No".

US-Iran ceasefire: This component is "Ceasefire broken" if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise, it is "Ceasefire holds".

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; surface-to-air missile strikes; small-arms fire; ground incursions; cyber operations; naval gunfire and artillery fire; howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this component will remain undetermined until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past December 31, 2027, this component will remain undetermined to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this component will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

House and Senate control: A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.

The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers.

For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.

For seats contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.

For seats not contested in the 2026 midterm election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the 2026 midterm election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the 2026 midterm election.

Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the 2026 midterm election, this component may remain undetermined until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.

The resolution sources for the House and Senate component will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 当前交易价为 96.8%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 84.3%，形成 -12.5% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.3% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 7.2%——形成可观的 +6.9% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 No Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds（EV 差：+1%）以及 Dem sweep; Ceasefire holds（EV 差：+0.9%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。