Crude Oil all time high by...?

$1M Vol
2026年12月31日
Active
概率趋势
December 31 16.5%
September 30 9.5%
May 31 0.2%
June 30 0.1%

核心摘要

根据「Crude Oil all time high by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 13.5% 获胜概率主导市场；September 30 以 8.5% 位居第二，June 30 以 0.8% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1M，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • December 31 (13.5%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 14¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $186.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • September 30 (8.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，September 30 保持着 8.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9¢。
  • June 30 (0.8%)：以 0.8% 的概率位列第三，市场对 June 30 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1December 3113.5%$186.1K14¢87¢
2September 308.5%$226.8K9¢92¢
3June 300.8%$196.3K1¢99¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.

This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.

The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 December 31 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 13.5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 19.2%——形成可观的 +5.7% EV 差。
  • 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 September 30（EV 差：+5.2%）以及 June 30（EV 差：+4.6%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
December 31Best EV13.5%19.2%+5.7%
September 308.5%13.7%+5.2%
June 300.8%5.3%+4.5%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jun 30, 2026

  • 08:03 AM
    DEDethronetheking
    $30.27

    Sold 36.47 No for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? at 0.83

  • 06:05 AM
    JGjghjuvbn
    $88.00

    Sold 88 No for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? at 1

  • 03:53 AM
    TRTruthfulG
    $103.75

    Sold 125 No for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? at 0.83

  • 03:40 AM
    ——
    $3.00

    Bought 17.647057 Yes for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? at 0.17

  • 03:18 AM
    0X0xc94e7402dF228C331db453594c5B6a95143055DC-1714208663389
    $1.02

    Sold 1.02 No for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? at 1

  • 03:11 AM
    FGfgretg
    $1.02

    Sold 1.02 No for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? at 1

  • 03:03 AM
    ——
    $2.87

    Bought 28.7 Yes for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? at 0.1

  • 03:03 AM
    0707828545A63951a387d4BC7A9X
    $10.00

    Bought 100 Yes for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? at 0.1

  • 03:03 AM
    XYxykj1
    $1.00

    Bought 10 Yes for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? at 0.1

  • 03:03 AM
    ——
    $2.00

    Bought 20 Yes for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? at 0.1

  • 03:03 AM
    CACapeCalibratedPM
    $1.00

    Bought 10 Yes for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? at 0.1

  • 03:03 AM
    WEWelcome2026
    $1.00

    Bought 10 Yes for Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? at 0.1

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

DR1
DragonSlayer13
Event PnL
-$4,602.63
Volume
$52,351.44
Positions
YesYesYes
912
0x9157…3810
Event PnL
+$2,508.57
Volume
$35,864.38
Positions
No
GO3
gorgeousfuel
Event PnL
-$139.96
Volume
$35,402.93
Positions
YesYes
6E4
0x6EDe…2014
Event PnL
+$15.00
Volume
$30,000.00
Positions
No
KI5
kitten147
Event PnL
+$1,024.41
Volume
$29,986.45
Positions
NoNo
SL6
slippy0
Event PnL
-$3,942.89
Volume
$26,914.89
Positions
YesYes
887
88blitzcrank
Event PnL
+$126.58
Volume
$22,330.09
Positions
YesYes
CA8
caishiopt
Event PnL
+$77.96
Volume
$22,049.37
Positions
YesYes

常见问题

当前市场对「Crude Oil all time high by...?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，December 31 以 13.5% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 September 30（8.5%），以及 June 30（0.8%）。该市场总成交量已达 $1M，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，December 31 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 13.5%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 19.2%——形成 +5.7% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？

当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。September 30 拥有 +5.2% 的正 EV 差，June 30 则为 +4.6%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。

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