
UMass vs. Toledo
核心摘要
根据「UMass vs. Toledo」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Spread -1.5 以压倒性的 8,700% 获胜概率主导市场;O/U 35.5 以 8,650% 位居第二,Spread -2.5 以 8,400% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $217.8K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Spread -1.5 (8,700%):Spread -1.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,700¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- O/U 35.5 (8,650%):作为最可行的替代选项,O/U 35.5 保持着 8,650% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,650¢。
- Spread -2.5 (8,400%):以 8,400% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Spread -2.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Spread -3.5 (8,300%)、Toledo O/U 23.5 (8,300%),以及 Spread -4.5 (8,050%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 O/U 37.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spread -1.5 | 8700.0% | — | 8700¢ | -8600¢ |
| 2 | O/U 35.5 | 8650.0% | $62 | 8650¢ | -8550¢ |
| 3 | Spread -2.5 | 8400.0% | — | 8400¢ | -8300¢ |
| 4 | Spread -3.5 | 8300.0% | $42 | 8300¢ | -8200¢ |
| 5 | Toledo O/U 23.5 | 8300.0% | — | 8300¢ | -8200¢ |
| 6 | Spread -4.5 | 8050.0% | — | 8050¢ | -7950¢ |
| 7 | O/U 37.5 | 7900.0% | — | 7900¢ | -7800¢ |
| 8 | Spread -5.5 | 7800.0% | — | 7800¢ | -7700¢ |
| 9 | Spread -6.5 | 7750.0% | — | 7750¢ | -7650¢ |
| 10 | O/U 39.5 | 7750.0% | — | 7750¢ | -7650¢ |
| 11 | O/U 41.5 | 7450.0% | $803 | 7450¢ | -7350¢ |
| 12 | Spread -7.5 | 7200.0% | $514 | 7200¢ | -7100¢ |
| 13 | Spread -9.5 | 7000.0% | $104 | 7000¢ | -6900¢ |
| 14 | O/U 43.5 | 6900.0% | $5 | 6900¢ | -6800¢ |
| 15 | Spread -10.5 | 6600.0% | $1.1K | 6600¢ | -6500¢ |
| 16 | O/U 45.5 | 6550.0% | $143 | 6550¢ | -6450¢ |
| 17 | Spread -11.5 | 6350.0% | $1.7K | 6350¢ | -6250¢ |
| 18 | Spread -8.5 | 6200.0% | — | 6200¢ | -6100¢ |
| 19 | Spread -13.5 | 5850.0% | $15.6K | 5850¢ | -5750¢ |
| 20 | Spread -12.5 | 5800.0% | $273 | 5800¢ | -5700¢ |
| 21 | O/U 47.5 | 5750.0% | — | 5750¢ | -5650¢ |
| 22 | O/U 49.5 | 5650.0% | $75 | 5650¢ | -5550¢ |
| 23 | Spread -14.5 | 5550.0% | $109.6K | 5550¢ | -5450¢ |
| 24 | Spread -16.5 | 5250.0% | $290 | 5250¢ | -5150¢ |
| 25 | Spread -8.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 26 | UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 27 | Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 28 | Spread -20.5 | 5000.0% | $406 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 29 | Spread -17.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 30 | Spread -16.5 | 5000.0% | $290 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 31 | Spread -14.5 | 5000.0% | $109.6K | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 32 | Spread -0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 33 | Spread -0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 34 | 1H O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 35 | 1H O/U 24.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 36 | 1H O/U 33.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 37 | 2H O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 38 | 2H O/U 24.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 39 | 2H O/U 27.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 40 | 2H O/U 30.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 41 | 2H O/U 33.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 42 | 1Q O/U 7.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 43 | 1Q O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 44 | 1Q O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 45 | 1Q O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 46 | 1Q O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 47 | 2Q O/U 7.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 48 | 2Q O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 49 | 2Q O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 50 | 2Q O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 51 | 2Q O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 52 | 3Q O/U 7.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 53 | 3Q O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 54 | 3Q O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 55 | 3Q O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 56 | 3Q O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 57 | 4Q O/U 7.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 58 | 4Q O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 59 | 4Q O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 60 | 4Q O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 61 | 4Q O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 62 | UMass O/U 26.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 63 | UMass O/U 29.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 64 | UMass O/U 32.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 65 | Toledo O/U 26.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 66 | Toledo O/U 29.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 67 | Toledo O/U 32.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 68 | Toledo O/U 35.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 69 | UMass 1H O/U 11.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 70 | UMass 1H O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 71 | UMass 1H O/U 15.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 72 | Toledo 1H O/U 12.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 73 | Toledo 1H O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 74 | Toledo 1H O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 75 | UMass 2H O/U 11.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 76 | UMass 2H O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 77 | UMass 2H O/U 15.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 78 | Toledo 2H O/U 12.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 79 | Toledo 2H O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 80 | Toledo 2H O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 81 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 82 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 83 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 84 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 85 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 86 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 87 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 88 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 89 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 90 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 91 | Game Goes to Overtime | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 92 | Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 93 | Pick-Six Scored | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 94 | UMass vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 95 | UMass vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 96 | UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 97 | UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 98 | UMass Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 99 | Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 100 | Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 101 | Toledo Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 102 | UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 103 | UMass Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 104 | Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 105 | Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 106 | Toledo Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 107 | UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 108 | UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 109 | Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 110 | UMass Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 111 | Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 112 | Toledo Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 113 | UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 114 | UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 115 | UMass Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 116 | Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 117 | Toledo Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 118 | UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 119 | Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 120 | Toledo 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 121 | UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 122 | UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 123 | UMass Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 124 | Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 125 | Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 126 | Toledo Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 127 | UMass Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 128 | UMass Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 129 | UMass Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 130 | Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 131 | Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 132 | Toledo Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 133 | UMass Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 134 | UMass Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 135 | UMass Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 136 | Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 137 | Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 138 | UMass vs. Toledo: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 139 | UMass vs. Toledo: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 140 | UMass vs. Toledo: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 141 | 2H Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 142 | Spread -34.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 143 | 1H Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 144 | 1Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 145 | 2Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 146 | 3Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 147 | 4Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 148 | O/U 51.5 | 4950.0% | $68.9K | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 149 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 150 | UMass vs. Toledo: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 151 | UMass 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 152 | Toledo Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 153 | Spread -17.5 | 4800.0% | — | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 154 | Spread -15.5 | 4800.0% | $46 | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 155 | Spread -18.5 | 4450.0% | — | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 156 | O/U 53.5 | 4400.0% | $1.0K | 4400¢ | -4300¢ |
| 157 | Spread -19.5 | 4400.0% | — | 4400¢ | -4300¢ |
| 158 | Spread -20.5 | 4250.0% | $406 | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 159 | 1H O/U 27.5 | 4150.0% | $89 | 4150¢ | -4050¢ |
| 160 | O/U 57.5 | 3950.0% | $3 | 3950¢ | -3850¢ |
| 161 | Spread -21.5 | 3900.0% | $1 | 3900¢ | -3800¢ |
| 162 | O/U 55.5 | 3750.0% | — | 3750¢ | -3650¢ |
| 163 | Spread -22.5 | 3650.0% | — | 3650¢ | -3550¢ |
| 164 | UMass O/U 20.5 | 3550.0% | — | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
| 165 | 1H O/U 30.5 | 3450.0% | — | 3450¢ | -3350¢ |
| 166 | Spread -24.5 | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 167 | O/U 61.5 | 3150.0% | — | 3150¢ | -3050¢ |
| 168 | O/U 63.5 | 3050.0% | — | 3050¢ | -2950¢ |
| 169 | UMass O/U 23.5 | 3050.0% | — | 3050¢ | -2950¢ |
| 170 | Spread -27.5 | 2800.0% | — | 2800¢ | -2700¢ |
| 171 | O/U 67.5 | 2700.0% | — | 2700¢ | -2600¢ |
| 172 | Spread -28.5 | 2700.0% | — | 2700¢ | -2600¢ |
| 173 | O/U 59.5 | 2650.0% | — | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 174 | O/U 69.5 | 2550.0% | — | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 175 | Spread -31.5 | 2550.0% | — | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 176 | O/U 73.5 | 2300.0% | — | 2300¢ | -2200¢ |
| 177 | O/U 75.5 | 2300.0% | — | 2300¢ | -2200¢ |
| 178 | Spread -30.5 | 1950.0% | $384 | 1950¢ | -1850¢ |
| 179 | O/U 65.5 | 1900.0% | — | 1900¢ | -1800¢ |
| 180 | UMass vs. Toledo | 1150.0% | $16.7K | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 181 | Spread -2.5 | 1100.0% | — | 1100¢ | -1000¢ |
| 182 | Spread -1.5 | 1050.0% | — | 1050¢ | -950¢ |
| 183 | Spread -4.5 | 800.0% | — | 800¢ | -700¢ |
| 184 | O/U 71.5 | 800.0% | — | 800¢ | -700¢ |
| 185 | Spread -3.5 | 750.0% | $42 | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 186 | Spread -6.5 | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 187 | Spread -5.5 | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 188 | Spread -7.5 | 515.0% | $514 | 515¢ | -415¢ |
| 189 | Spread -10.5 | 260.0% | $1.1K | 260¢ | -160¢ |
| 190 | Spread -13.5 | 195.0% | $15.6K | 195¢ | -95¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming college football game between UMass and Toledo, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):
This market will resolve to "UMass" if UMass win the game.
This market will resolve to "Toledo" if Toledo win the game.
Overtime is included if played.
If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Nov 11, 2026
- 11:48 PMSOsoylentgoy$1.00
Bought 1.408451 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-21.5) at 0.71
- 11:20 PM——$1.13
Sold 2.82 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-9.5) at 0.4
- 10:50 PMSIsionnach$2.38
Bought 5.804879 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-9.5) at 0.41
- 10:50 PMMUmuhittinov$1.00
Bought 2.439025 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-9.5) at 0.41
- 10:50 PM——$1.16
Bought 2.829269 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-9.5) at 0.41
- 10:50 PMSAsanten$5.00
Bought 12.195122 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-9.5) at 0.41
- 10:50 PMPRprimm$31.33
Bought 78.32 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-9.5) at 0.4
- 10:39 PMMAMadridTime$15.13
Bought 252.24138 UMass for Spread: UMass (-7.5) at 0.06
- 10:07 PM——$25.30
Bought 46 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-15.5) at 0.55
- 09:49 PMJLjlangan$25.00
Bought 48.076922 UMass for Spread: Toledo (-14.5) at 0.52
- 09:38 PMBUBunter.Hiden$5.00
Bought 29.411765 UMass for UMass vs. Toledo at 0.17
- 09:20 PMNInigiri99$18.62
Bought 38 Over for UMass vs. Toledo: 1H O/U 27.5 at 0.49
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「UMass vs. Toledo」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Spread -1.5 以 8,700% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 O/U 35.5(8,650%),以及 Spread -2.5(8,400%)。该市场总成交量已达 $217.8K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
