Michigan vs. Oregon

$521.1K Vol
2026年11月15日
Active
概率趋势
Oregon 87.5%
Michigan 5.5%

核心摘要

根据「Michigan vs. Oregon」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,O/U 35.5 以压倒性的 8,950% 获胜概率主导市场;Spread -1.5 以 8,900% 位居第二,Spread -2.5 以 8,750% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $521.1K,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • O/U 35.5 (8,950%):O/U 35.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,950¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $44 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Spread -1.5 (8,900%):作为最可行的替代选项,Spread -1.5 保持着 8,900% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,900¢。
  • Spread -2.5 (8,750%):以 8,750% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Spread -2.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 O/U 37.5 (8,400%)、Spread -3.5 (8,300%),以及 Spread -4.5 (8,000%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 2Q O/U 7.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1O/U 35.58950.0%$448950¢-8850¢
2Spread -1.58900.0%—8900¢-8800¢
3Spread -2.58750.0%$7688750¢-8650¢
4O/U 37.58400.0%$3.6K8400¢-8300¢
5Spread -3.58300.0%$1218300¢-8200¢
6Spread -4.58000.0%$6798000¢-7900¢
72Q O/U 7.58000.0%—8000¢-7900¢
8Spread -5.57900.0%$107900¢-7800¢
9O/U 39.57900.0%$24.7K7900¢-7800¢
10Oregon O/U 23.57800.0%—7800¢-7700¢
11Spread -6.57700.0%—7700¢-7600¢
12O/U 41.57250.0%$3.6K7250¢-7150¢
13Spread -7.56900.0%$2.6K6900¢-6800¢
144Q O/U 7.56900.0%—6900¢-6800¢
15O/U 43.56650.0%$16.7K6650¢-6550¢
16Spread -8.56150.0%$2706150¢-6050¢
17Spread -10.56100.0%$13.5K6100¢-6000¢
18O/U 47.55900.0%—5900¢-5800¢
191H O/U 27.55800.0%$6165800¢-5700¢
20O/U 45.55750.0%$4.9K5750¢-5650¢
21Spread -11.55750.0%$8.8K5750¢-5650¢
222Q O/U 13.55500.0%—5500¢-5400¢
23Spread -13.55450.0%$2375450¢-5350¢
242Q O/U 16.55450.0%—5450¢-5350¢
252H O/U 27.55350.0%—5350¢-5250¢
264Q O/U 16.55200.0%—5200¢-5100¢
27Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.55100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
28Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 21.55100.0%—5100¢-5000¢
29Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
30Spread -0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
311H O/U 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
321H O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
331H O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
342H O/U 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
352H O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
362H O/U 33.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
373Q O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
38Michigan O/U 26.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
39Michigan O/U 29.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
40Oregon O/U 26.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
41Oregon O/U 29.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
42Oregon O/U 32.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
43Oregon O/U 35.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
44Michigan 1H O/U 11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
45Michigan 1H O/U 13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
46Oregon 1H O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
47Oregon 1H O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
48Michigan 2H O/U 11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
49Michigan 2H O/U 13.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
50Michigan 2H O/U 15.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
51Oregon 2H O/U 12.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
52Oregon 2H O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
53Oregon 2H O/U 16.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
54Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q45000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
55Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
56Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q35000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
57Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
58Both Teams to Score a Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
59Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q25000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
60Both Teams to Score Points - Q35000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
61Both Teams to Score Points - Q25000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
62Both Teams to Score Points - Q45000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
63Game Goes to Overtime5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
64Pick-Six Scored5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
65Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
66Michigan vs. Oregon: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
67Michigan vs. Oregon: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
68Michigan vs. Oregon: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
69Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
70Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
71Michigan Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
72Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
73Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
74Oregon Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
75Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
76Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
77Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
78Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
79Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
80Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
81Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
82Michigan Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
83Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
84Oregon Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
85Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
86Michigan Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
87Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
88Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
89Oregon Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
90Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
91Michigan 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
92Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
93Oregon 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
94Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
95Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
96Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
97Michigan Field Goals Made: O/U 2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
98Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 1.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
99Oregon Field Goals Made: O/U 2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
100Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
101Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
102Michigan Total Receptions: O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
103Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
104Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
105Oregon Total Receptions: O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
106Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
107Michigan Total First Downs: O/U 23.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
108Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
109Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 21.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
110Oregon Total First Downs: O/U 23.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
111Michigan vs. Oregon: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
112Michigan vs. Oregon: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1132H Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1141H Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1152Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1163Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
1174Q Moneyline5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
118Michigan O/U 32.54995.0%$94995¢-4895¢
119O/U 71.54955.0%—4955¢-4855¢
120O/U 73.54955.0%—4955¢-4855¢
121O/U 75.54955.0%—4955¢-4855¢
122Spread -20.54950.0%$4.3K4950¢-4850¢
123Spread -17.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
124Spread -16.54950.0%$1604950¢-4850¢
125Spread -8.54950.0%$2704950¢-4850¢
126Michigan Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
127Oregon Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
128Michigan vs. Oregon: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
129Spread -14.54750.0%$4734750¢-4650¢
130O/U 49.54750.0%—4750¢-4650¢
131Spread -16.54550.0%$1604550¢-4450¢
1322Q O/U 10.54200.0%$3924200¢-4100¢
1334Q O/U 10.54050.0%—4050¢-3950¢
134O/U 53.54000.0%—4000¢-3900¢
135Spread -17.53950.0%—3950¢-3850¢
136O/U 51.53750.0%$1.6K3750¢-3650¢
1374Q O/U 13.53400.0%—3400¢-3300¢
138Michigan O/U 20.53350.0%$10003350¢-3250¢
139O/U 55.53300.0%—3300¢-3200¢
1402H O/U 30.53250.0%—3250¢-3150¢
141Spread -20.53150.0%$4.3K3150¢-3050¢
142O/U 59.53050.0%—3050¢-2950¢
1431H O/U 30.53000.0%—3000¢-2900¢
144O/U 61.52950.0%—2950¢-2850¢
145Michigan O/U 23.52850.0%$562850¢-2750¢
146O/U 65.52750.0%—2750¢-2650¢
147O/U 67.52650.0%—2650¢-2550¢
148O/U 69.52650.0%—2650¢-2550¢
1492Q O/U 19.52550.0%—2550¢-2450¢
1503Q O/U 13.52350.0%—2350¢-2250¢
151O/U 57.52150.0%$3082150¢-2050¢
1523Q O/U 10.52000.0%—2000¢-1900¢
1533Q O/U 16.52000.0%—2000¢-1900¢
1544Q O/U 19.52000.0%—2000¢-1900¢
155Michigan 1H O/U 15.51655.0%—1655¢-1555¢
1563Q O/U 19.51500.0%—1500¢-1400¢
157O/U 63.5980.0%—980¢-880¢
158Spread -1.5900.0%—900¢-800¢
159Michigan vs. Oregon850.0%$431.8K850¢-750¢
160Spread -2.5850.0%$768850¢-750¢
161Spread -3.5540.0%$121540¢-440¢
162Spread -5.5395.0%$10395¢-295¢
163Spread -4.5390.0%$679390¢-290¢
164Spread -6.5290.0%—290¢-190¢
165Spread -7.5280.0%$2.6K280¢-180¢
166Spread -10.5150.0%$13.5K150¢-50¢
167Spread -13.580.0%$23780¢20¢
168Spread -14.550.0%$47350¢50¢

裁决规则

In the upcoming college football game between Michigan and Oregon, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):

This market will resolve to "Michigan" if Michigan win the game.

This market will resolve to "Oregon" if Oregon win the game.

Overtime is included if played.

If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Nov 14, 2026

  • 08:52 AM
    SASanago
    $5.00

    Bought 6.329114 Oregon for Michigan vs. Oregon at 0.79

  • 06:17 AM
    FRfrenchflair14
    $6.72

    Bought 14.297873 Oregon for Spread: Oregon (-11.5) at 0.47

  • 06:17 AM
    ——
    $1.02

    Bought 1.888889 Michigan for Spread: Oregon (-11.5) at 0.54

  • 06:09 AM
    YOyoooogo
    $24.84

    Bought 46 Michigan for Spread: Oregon (-11.5) at 0.54

  • 06:09 AM
    SWSwiftcvb
    $26.32

    Bought 56 Oregon for Spread: Oregon (-11.5) at 0.47

  • 06:09 AM
    ALAliced-354
    $18.90

    Bought 35 Michigan for Spread: Oregon (-11.5) at 0.54

  • 06:09 AM
    ARArmstrongbvn
    $11.88

    Bought 22 Michigan for Spread: Oregon (-11.5) at 0.54

  • 02:00 AM
    DIdiscoverilla
    $4.91

    Bought 6.22 Oregon for Michigan vs. Oregon at 0.79

  • 01:59 AM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 1.265823 Oregon for Michigan vs. Oregon at 0.79

  • 12:53 AM
    GOGolftango
    $100.00

    Bought 196.078432 Michigan for Spread: Oregon (-10.5) at 0.51

Nov 13, 2026

  • 09:28 PM
    SMsmallniprick
    $6.57

    Bought 12.64 Under for Michigan vs. Oregon: O/U 39.5 at 0.52

  • 08:23 PM
    SMsmallniprick
    $1,449.63

    Sold 3151.37 Oregon for Spread: Oregon (-11.5) at 0.46

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

991
999585
事件盈亏
-$5,777.60
成交量
$404,289.11
持仓数
Oregon
2C2
0x2c33…5465
事件盈亏
+$4,500.00
成交量
$300,000.00
持仓数
Michigan
CU3
CUTJALENHURTS
事件盈亏
+$992.87
成交量
$66,191.08
持仓数
Michigan
PR4
primm
事件盈亏
+$2,221.88
成交量
$26,288.98
持仓数
OverMichiganOver+2
KE5
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
事件盈亏
-$2,741.93
成交量
$21,047.17
持仓数
UnderUnderMichigan+2
CM6
cm2897
事件盈亏
+$169.83
成交量
$11,055.00
持仓数
MichiganMichigan
MO7
mooseborzoi
事件盈亏
-$97.50
成交量
$11,025.00
持仓数
OverOverOregon+2
FL8
Flipadelphia
事件盈亏
-$1,466.17
成交量
$10,260.35
持仓数
MichiganMichigan

常见问题

当前市场对「Michigan vs. Oregon」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,O/U 35.5 以 8,950% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Spread -1.5(8,900%),以及 Spread -2.5(8,750%)。该市场总成交量已达 $521.1K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

开始交易