
Fresno State vs. Texas State
核心摘要
根据「Fresno State vs. Texas State」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,O/U 35.5 以压倒性的 9,400% 获胜概率主导市场;O/U 39.5 以 9,000% 位居第二,O/U 41.5 以 8,800% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $185.7K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- O/U 35.5 (9,400%):O/U 35.5 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,400¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- O/U 39.5 (9,000%):作为最可行的替代选项,O/U 39.5 保持着 9,000% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,000¢。
- O/U 41.5 (8,800%):以 8,800% 的概率位列第三,市场对 O/U 41.5 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 O/U 43.5 (8,600%)、Texas State O/U 23.5 (8,600%),以及 O/U 45.5 (8,250%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 O/U 47.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O/U 35.5 | 9400.0% | — | 9400¢ | -9300¢ |
| 2 | O/U 39.5 | 9000.0% | — | 9000¢ | -8900¢ |
| 3 | O/U 41.5 | 8800.0% | — | 8800¢ | -8700¢ |
| 4 | O/U 43.5 | 8600.0% | — | 8600¢ | -8500¢ |
| 5 | Texas State O/U 23.5 | 8600.0% | — | 8600¢ | -8500¢ |
| 6 | O/U 45.5 | 8250.0% | — | 8250¢ | -8150¢ |
| 7 | O/U 47.5 | 7950.0% | — | 7950¢ | -7850¢ |
| 8 | Texas State O/U 26.5 | 7700.0% | — | 7700¢ | -7600¢ |
| 9 | O/U 49.5 | 7650.0% | — | 7650¢ | -7550¢ |
| 10 | Spread -1.5 | 7550.0% | — | 7550¢ | -7450¢ |
| 11 | O/U 37.5 | 7450.0% | — | 7450¢ | -7350¢ |
| 12 | Spread -2.5 | 7350.0% | — | 7350¢ | -7250¢ |
| 13 | 3Q O/U 7.5 | 7350.0% | — | 7350¢ | -7250¢ |
| 14 | Texas State O/U 29.5 | 7250.0% | — | 7250¢ | -7150¢ |
| 15 | O/U 51.5 | 7200.0% | — | 7200¢ | -7100¢ |
| 16 | 3Q O/U 10.5 | 7200.0% | — | 7200¢ | -7100¢ |
| 17 | 1Q O/U 7.5 | 7050.0% | — | 7050¢ | -6950¢ |
| 18 | Spread -3.5 | 6850.0% | $1 | 6850¢ | -6750¢ |
| 19 | O/U 53.5 | 6700.0% | — | 6700¢ | -6600¢ |
| 20 | Spread -4.5 | 6550.0% | — | 6550¢ | -6450¢ |
| 21 | Spread -5.5 | 6250.0% | — | 6250¢ | -6150¢ |
| 22 | O/U 55.5 | 6150.0% | — | 6150¢ | -6050¢ |
| 23 | Spread -6.5 | 6100.0% | — | 6100¢ | -6000¢ |
| 24 | Texas State O/U 32.5 | 6100.0% | — | 6100¢ | -6000¢ |
| 25 | 1Q O/U 10.5 | 6000.0% | — | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 26 | 1H O/U 27.5 | 5950.0% | — | 5950¢ | -5850¢ |
| 27 | O/U 57.5 | 5800.0% | — | 5800¢ | -5700¢ |
| 28 | Spread -7.5 | 5700.0% | — | 5700¢ | -5600¢ |
| 29 | 1H O/U 24.5 | 5700.0% | — | 5700¢ | -5600¢ |
| 30 | Spread -8.5 | 5550.0% | $125 | 5550¢ | -5450¢ |
| 31 | 1H O/U 21.5 | 5500.0% | — | 5500¢ | -5400¢ |
| 32 | 1Q O/U 13.5 | 5450.0% | — | 5450¢ | -5350¢ |
| 33 | Fresno State O/U 23.5 | 5450.0% | — | 5450¢ | -5350¢ |
| 34 | Spread -9.5 | 5350.0% | $127.2K | 5350¢ | -5250¢ |
| 35 | 1H O/U 30.5 | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 36 | 3Q O/U 13.5 | 5200.0% | — | 5200¢ | -5100¢ |
| 37 | O/U 59.5 | 5150.0% | $53.1K | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 38 | Fresno State O/U 20.5 | 5150.0% | — | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 39 | Spread -0.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 40 | Spread -0.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 41 | Fresno State 1H O/U 13.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 42 | Fresno State 1H O/U 15.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 43 | Texas State 1H O/U 12.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 44 | Texas State 2H O/U 16.5 | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 45 | 2H O/U 21.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 46 | 2H O/U 24.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 47 | 2H O/U 27.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 48 | 2H O/U 30.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 49 | 2H O/U 33.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 50 | Fresno State vs. Texas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 51 | Fresno State vs. Texas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 52 | Fresno State vs. Texas State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 53 | Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 54 | Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 55 | Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 56 | Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 57 | Texas State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 58 | Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 59 | Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 60 | Fresno State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 61 | Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 62 | Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 63 | Texas State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 64 | Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 65 | Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 66 | Fresno State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 67 | Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 68 | Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 69 | Texas State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 70 | Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 71 | Fresno State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 72 | Texas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 73 | Texas State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 74 | Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 75 | Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 76 | Fresno State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 77 | Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 78 | Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 79 | Texas State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 80 | Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 81 | Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 82 | Fresno State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 83 | Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 84 | Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 85 | Texas State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 86 | Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 87 | Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 88 | Fresno State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 89 | Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 90 | Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 91 | Texas State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 92 | 2Q O/U 7.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 93 | 2Q O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 94 | 2Q O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 95 | 2Q O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 96 | 2Q O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 97 | 4Q O/U 7.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 98 | 4Q O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 99 | 4Q O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 100 | 4Q O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 101 | 4Q O/U 19.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 102 | Fresno State 1H O/U 11.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 103 | Texas State 1H O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 104 | Texas State 1H O/U 16.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 105 | Fresno State 2H O/U 11.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 106 | Fresno State 2H O/U 13.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 107 | Fresno State 2H O/U 15.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 108 | Texas State 2H O/U 12.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 109 | Texas State 2H O/U 14.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 110 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 111 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 112 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 113 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 114 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 115 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 116 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 117 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 118 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 119 | Game Goes to Overtime | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 120 | Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 121 | Pick-Six Scored | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 122 | Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 123 | Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 124 | Fresno State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 125 | Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 126 | Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 127 | Texas State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 128 | Fresno State vs. Texas State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 129 | Fresno State vs. Texas State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 130 | Fresno State vs. Texas State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 131 | 2H Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 132 | 2Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 133 | 3Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 134 | 4Q Moneyline | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 135 | Spread -16.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 136 | Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 137 | Fresno State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 138 | Spread -20.5 | 4900.0% | $589 | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 139 | Spread -17.5 | 4900.0% | $66 | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 140 | Spread -8.5 | 4900.0% | $125 | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 141 | Texas State O/U 35.5 | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 142 | Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 143 | Spread -10.5 | 4850.0% | — | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 144 | 1H O/U 33.5 | 4800.0% | — | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 145 | O/U 61.5 | 4550.0% | $2.3K | 4550¢ | -4450¢ |
| 146 | Spread -13.5 | 4300.0% | $903 | 4300¢ | -4200¢ |
| 147 | O/U 63.5 | 4200.0% | — | 4200¢ | -4100¢ |
| 148 | Spread -14.5 | 3850.0% | — | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
| 149 | O/U 65.5 | 3650.0% | — | 3650¢ | -3550¢ |
| 150 | Spread -16.5 | 3600.0% | — | 3600¢ | -3500¢ |
| 151 | 1Q O/U 16.5 | 3450.0% | — | 3450¢ | -3350¢ |
| 152 | O/U 67.5 | 3350.0% | — | 3350¢ | -3250¢ |
| 153 | Spread -17.5 | 3200.0% | $66 | 3200¢ | -3100¢ |
| 154 | 1Q Moneyline | 3200.0% | — | 3200¢ | -3100¢ |
| 155 | 3Q O/U 16.5 | 2950.0% | — | 2950¢ | -2850¢ |
| 156 | 3Q O/U 19.5 | 2950.0% | — | 2950¢ | -2850¢ |
| 157 | Fresno State O/U 29.5 | 2750.0% | — | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 158 | Spread -20.5 | 2700.0% | $589 | 2700¢ | -2600¢ |
| 159 | O/U 69.5 | 2700.0% | — | 2700¢ | -2600¢ |
| 160 | 1H Moneyline | 2700.0% | — | 2700¢ | -2600¢ |
| 161 | Fresno State O/U 32.5 | 2650.0% | — | 2650¢ | -2550¢ |
| 162 | Fresno State O/U 26.5 | 2600.0% | — | 2600¢ | -2500¢ |
| 163 | Fresno State vs. Texas State | 2350.0% | $1.5K | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 164 | O/U 71.5 | 2350.0% | $26 | 2350¢ | -2250¢ |
| 165 | 1Q O/U 19.5 | 2300.0% | — | 2300¢ | -2200¢ |
| 166 | Spread -1.5 | 2150.0% | — | 2150¢ | -2050¢ |
| 167 | Spread -2.5 | 2050.0% | — | 2050¢ | -1950¢ |
| 168 | O/U 73.5 | 2050.0% | — | 2050¢ | -1950¢ |
| 169 | Spread -3.5 | 1650.0% | $1 | 1650¢ | -1550¢ |
| 170 | Spread -4.5 | 1450.0% | — | 1450¢ | -1350¢ |
| 171 | Spread -5.5 | 1350.0% | — | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 172 | O/U 75.5 | 1350.0% | — | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 173 | Spread -6.5 | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 174 | Spread -7.5 | 950.0% | — | 950¢ | -850¢ |
| 175 | Spread -10.5 | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 176 | Spread -13.5 | 540.0% | $903 | 540¢ | -440¢ |
| 177 | Spread -14.5 | 350.0% | — | 350¢ | -250¢ |
裁决规则
In the upcoming college football game between Fresno State and Texas State, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):
This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game.
This market will resolve to "Texas State" if Texas State win the game.
Overtime is included if played.
If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Nov 14, 2026
- 04:05 AMCLclownfishbets$32.64
Bought 68 Fresno State for Spread: Texas State (-9.5) at 0.48
- 03:51 AM0X0x4D5BbBEe74D185bE8fA1cD955081884F9b36aCDC-1768296371678$5.30
Bought 10 Texas State for Spread: Texas State (-9.5) at 0.53
- 03:51 AMPWPwaddler$814.42
Bought 1566.2 Texas State for Spread: Texas State (-9.5) at 0.52
Nov 13, 2026
- 09:28 PMSMsmallniprick$6.25
Bought 12.76 Fresno State for Spread: Texas State (-9.5) at 0.49
- 07:51 PM0X0x44Aa5F441221043c351aFC029c8CA90032D9EB45-1776520943631$4.99
Bought 20.791667 Fresno State for Fresno State vs. Texas State at 0.24
- 05:06 PMFIFiestaIncommingPapa$4.72
Bought 19.66 Fresno State for Fresno State vs. Texas State at 0.24
- 05:06 PMWEWearyWanderer$781.55
Bought 1015 Texas State for Fresno State vs. Texas State at 0.77
- 01:33 PM——$3.85
Bought 5 Texas State for Fresno State vs. Texas State at 0.77
- 11:22 AMPAPassssssssskai$500.00
Bought 980.4 Under for Fresno State vs. Texas State: O/U 59.5 at 0.51
- 06:05 AMMOmooseborzoi$14.04
Bought 27 Texas State for Spread: Texas State (-9.5) at 0.52
- 06:04 AMMOmooseborzoi$2.88
Bought 12 Fresno State for Fresno State vs. Texas State at 0.24
- 03:40 AMMOmooseborzoi$2.64
Bought 11 Fresno State for Fresno State vs. Texas State at 0.24
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Fresno State vs. Texas State」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,O/U 35.5 以 9,400% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 O/U 39.5(9,000%),以及 O/U 41.5(8,800%)。该市场总成交量已达 $185.7K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
