Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker

$223 Vol
2026年11月14日
Active
概率趋势
Juan Manuel La Serna 51.0%
Nicolas Kicker 49.0%

核心摘要

根据「Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,Completed Match 以压倒性的 5,500% 获胜概率主导市场;Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 21.5 以 5,300% 位居第二,Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker 以 5,150% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $223,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • Completed Match (5,500%):Completed Match 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,500¢,显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 21.5 (5,300%):作为最可行的替代选项,Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 21.5 保持着 5,300% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,300¢。
  • Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker (5,150%):以 5,150% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 Winner (5,150%)、Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Set 2 Winner (5,000%),以及 Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Game Spread +/-0.5 (4,950%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 23.5 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1Completed Match5500.0%—5500¢-5400¢
2Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 21.55300.0%—5300¢-5200¢
3Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker5150.0%$2235150¢-5050¢
4Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 Winner5150.0%—5150¢-5050¢
5Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Set 2 Winner5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
6Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Game Spread +/-0.54950.0%—4950¢-4850¢
7Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 23.54650.0%—4650¢-4550¢
8Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 22.54600.0%—4600¢-4500¢
9Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Total Sets: O/U 2.54000.0%—4000¢-3900¢
10Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Set Handicap +/-1.53200.0%—3200¢-3100¢
11Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Set Handicap +/-1.52950.0%—2950¢-2850¢

裁决规则

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel La Serna and Nicolas Kicker in the Villa Maria, originally scheduled for November 7, 2026 at 8:00AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel La Serna' if Juan Manuel La Serna advances against Nicolas Kicker.

This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Kicker' if Nicolas Kicker advances against Juan Manuel La Serna.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

常见问题

当前市场对「Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,Completed Match 以 5,500% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 21.5(5,300%),以及 Villa Maria: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Nicolas Kicker(5,150%)。该市场总成交量已达 $223,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

开始交易