Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

根据「Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? 以压倒性的 9,450% 获胜概率主导市场；Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? 以 8,750% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $80.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? (9,450%)：Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,450¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $80.6K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? (8,750%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? 保持着 8,750% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,750¢。

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.

Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.

If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.