#1 Searched TV Show on Google 2026?

$127.8K Vol
2027年4月1日
Active
概率趋势
Stranger Things 30.3%
Euphoria 26.2%
Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story 9.4%
His & Hers 6.8%
Heated Rivalry 6.0%

核心摘要

根据「#1 Searched TV Show on Google 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Stranger Things 以压倒性的 31.5% 获胜概率主导市场；Euphoria 以 26.1% 位居第二，Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story 以 10% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $127.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Stranger Things (31.5%)：Stranger Things 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 31¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $17.7K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Euphoria (26.1%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Euphoria 保持着 26.1% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 26¢。
  • Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story (10%)：以 10% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 32.6%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 His & Hers (6.7%)、Heated Rivalry (6.1%)，以及 The Pitt (5.6%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 The Boys 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Stranger Things31.4%$17.7K31¢69¢
2Euphoria26.1%$49.7K26¢74¢
3Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story10.0%$1.4K10¢90¢
4His & Hers6.7%$23.4K7¢93¢
5Heated Rivalry6.0%$7936¢94¢
6The Pitt5.5%$7.4K6¢94¢
7The Boys3.5%$2.3K4¢96¢
8A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms3.0%$4.5K3¢97¢
9Teach You a Lesson2.4%$3.4K2¢98¢
10Swapped2.4%$9.4K2¢98¢
11Avatar: The Last Airbender1.1%$2201¢99¢
12Elle1.1%$1911¢99¢
13Bridgerton1.1%$3251¢99¢
14Lanterns1.0%$2091¢99¢
15East of Eden1.0%$1831¢99¢
16Blade Runner 20991.0%$1911¢99¢
17Michael Jackson0.9%$1911¢99¢
18Ms. Rachel0.9%$2201¢99¢
19Hacks0.9%$2341¢99¢
20Pluribus0.9%$2161¢99¢
21Love Island0.9%$1911¢99¢
22Spider-Noir0.9%$2401¢99¢
23The Testaments0.9%$1861¢99¢
24Neagley0.9%$1911¢99¢
25Wonder Man0.9%$2001¢99¢
26Rooster0.9%$2001¢99¢
27Crystal Lake0.9%$1871¢99¢
28The Comeback0.9%$1831¢99¢
29Malcolm in the Middle0.9%$1681¢99¢
30The Traitors0.9%$1831¢99¢
31Daredevil: Born Again0.9%$1831¢99¢
32The Hunting Wives0.9%$1831¢99¢
33Scrubs0.9%$1831¢99¢
34Dancing with the Stars0.9%$2011¢99¢
35I Will Find You0.8%$1911¢99¢
36Man on Fire0.8%$1911¢99¢
37Half Man0.8%$2001¢99¢
38Scarpetta0.8%$1881¢99¢
39Doctor Foster0.8%$1901¢99¢
40Fallout0.8%$1831¢99¢
41The Bear0.7%$1881¢99¢
42Ted Lasso0.4%$4850¢100¢
43Widow's Bay0.3%$3170¢100¢
44House of the Dragon0.3%$5570¢100¢
45One Piece0.3%$1910¢100¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve according to the show ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global “TV Shows” list for 2026.

The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → TV Shows. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure.

A search term that clearly refers to a term listed in this market (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, specified seasons, or closely related phrasing) will count toward the term as listed in this market. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the term that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market.

This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：Stranger Things 当前交易价为 31.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 13.9%，形成 -17.5% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Ted Lasso 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.4% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 6.8%——形成可观的 +6.4% EV 差。
  • 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Swapped（EV 差：+6.2%）以及 Widow's Bay（EV 差：+5.3%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Stranger Things31.4%13.9%-17.5%
Euphoria26.1%15.9%-10.1%
Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story10.0%2.8%-7.1%
His & Hers6.7%10.8%+4.1%
Heated Rivalry6.0%1.1%-4.9%
The Pitt5.5%9.9%+4.3%
The Boys3.5%8.7%+5.2%
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms3.0%3.7%+0.7%
Teach You a Lesson2.4%4.4%+2.0%
Swapped2.4%8.6%+6.2%
Avatar: The Last Airbender1.1%0.3%-0.8%
Elle1.1%0.3%-0.7%
Bridgerton1.1%0.3%-0.7%
Lanterns1.0%0.4%-0.6%
East of Eden1.0%0.3%-0.7%
Blade Runner 20991.0%0.4%-0.7%
Michael Jackson0.9%5.3%+4.4%
Ms. Rachel0.9%0.3%-0.6%
Hacks0.9%0.3%-0.6%
Pluribus0.9%0.4%-0.6%
Love Island0.9%0.3%-0.6%
Spider-Noir0.9%0.1%-0.8%
The Testaments0.9%0.1%-0.8%
Neagley0.9%0.2%-0.7%
Wonder Man0.9%0.1%-0.8%
Rooster0.9%0.1%-0.8%
Crystal Lake0.9%0.2%-0.7%
The Comeback0.9%0.1%-0.8%
Malcolm in the Middle0.9%0.1%-0.8%
The Traitors0.9%0.1%-0.8%
Daredevil: Born Again0.9%0.1%-0.8%
The Hunting Wives0.9%0.1%-0.8%
Scrubs0.9%0.1%-0.8%
Dancing with the Stars0.9%0.3%-0.6%
I Will Find You0.8%0.1%-0.7%
Man on Fire0.8%0.3%-0.5%
Half Man0.8%0.1%-0.7%
Scarpetta0.8%0.3%-0.5%
Doctor Foster0.8%0.3%-0.5%
Fallout0.8%0.3%-0.5%
The Bear0.7%0.1%-0.6%
Ted LassoBest EV0.4%6.8%+6.3%
Widow's Bay0.3%5.5%+5.3%
House of the Dragon0.3%0.1%-0.2%
One Piece0.3%0.1%-0.2%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Oct 24, 2026

  • 03:51 AM
    AJAJSV
    $0.20

    Bought 6.78 Yes for Will A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.03

Oct 23, 2026

  • 11:00 PM
    ANAnony777
    $0.60

    Sold 20 Yes for Will A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.03

  • 10:59 PM
    ANAnony777
    $0.04

    Sold 0.17 Yes for Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.26

  • 07:01 AM
    SDsdfsdfsdfsdf2
    $2.73

    Sold 4.01 No for Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.68

  • 07:01 AM
    SDsdfsdfsdfsdf2
    $7.35

    Sold 10.97 No for Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.67

  • 07:01 AM
    NONotAnIdiot
    $4.80

    Bought 14.984424 Yes for Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.32

  • 03:54 AM
    JOJoGold
    $47.57

    Bought 71 No for Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.67

  • 02:36 AM
    DEDelta-Flow-82
    $36.18

    Bought 54 No for Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.67

  • 12:32 AM
    PPPPMT
    $0.09

    Sold 9.3 Yes for Will Ted Lasso be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.01

Oct 22, 2026

  • 10:10 PM
    AJAJSV
    $2.16

    Bought 21.6 Yes for Will Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.1

  • 12:58 PM
    POpootytherewardfarmer
    $8.50

    Sold 25 Yes for Will Stranger Things be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.34

  • 12:57 PM
    POpootytherewardfarmer
    $0.64

    Sold 31.99 Yes for Will Teach You a Lesson be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? at 0.02

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件盈亏
+$19,357.65
成交量
$30,876.72
持仓数
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HA2
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-$72.68
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持仓数
YesNoYes+42
VV3
VVKhqdMdKjEpLsDRwu
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+$615.71
成交量
$6,028.71
持仓数
NoNoNo+6
PA4
PaddyAlpha
事件盈亏
-$201.77
成交量
$3,967.71
持仓数
NoNoNo+41
LO5
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事件盈亏
+$3.38
成交量
$3,435.66
持仓数
YesYesYes+41
SN6
SnapElectionAvoider
事件盈亏
+$154.55
成交量
$2,671.60
持仓数
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3B7
0x3bf9…5075
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-$23.26
成交量
$2,118.69
持仓数
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VO8
Vodka-
事件盈亏
+$134.17
成交量
$2,112.71
持仓数
No

常见问题

当前市场对「#1 Searched TV Show on Google 2026?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Stranger Things 以 31.5% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Euphoria（26.1%），以及 Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story（10%）。该市场总成交量已达 $127.8K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，Ted Lasso 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 0.4%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 6.8%——形成 +6.4% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 Stranger Things 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 31.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 13.9%，形成 -17.5% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？

当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Swapped 拥有 +6.2% 的正 EV 差，Widow's Bay 则为 +5.3%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。

开始交易