Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is dominating the market with an overwhelming 28% chance of winning. Ishaq Dar follows in second place at 27.5%, while J.D. Vance sits in third with 27%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $1.1M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (28%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 28¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $119.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Ishaq Dar (27.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Ishaq Dar maintains a 27.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 28¢.
• J.D. Vance (27%): Sitting in third place with a 27% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward J.D. Vance, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~17.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Kazem Gharibabadi (27%), Nick Stewart (24.5%), and Majid Takht-Ravanchi (20.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Masoud Pezeshkian are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.

Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.

Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.

If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Ishaq Dar currently trades at 27.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 18.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -8.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Rafael Grossi as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 12.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 22.7% — yielding an impressive +10.2% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Donald Trump (EV Gap: +6%) and Mojtaba Khamenei (EV Gap: +5.5%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.