Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Steve Witkoff is dominating the market with an overwhelming 72% chance of winning. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf follows in second place at 70.5%, while Jared Kushner sits in third with 67.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $47.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Steve Witkoff (72%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Steve Witkoff is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 72¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $974 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (70.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf maintains a 70.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 71¢.
• Jared Kushner (67.5%): Sitting in third place with a 67.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Jared Kushner, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Abbas Araghchi (62.5%), Majid Takht-Ravanchi (55%), and Masoud Pezeshkian (44.5%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like J.D. Vance are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.

Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.

Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.

If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome Majid Takht-Ravanchi currently trades at 55%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 37.5%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -17.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Marco Rubio as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 23% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 81.8% — yielding an impressive +58.8% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include Masoud Pezeshkian (EV Gap: +55.5%) and Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (EV Gap: +46.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.