Which Senate races will be within 5%?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Which Senate races will be within 5%?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Texas is dominating the market with an overwhelming 68.5% chance of winning. Alaska follows in second place at 66%, while Ohio (Special) sits in third with 64.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $76.8K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Texas (68.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Texas is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 69¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $10.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Alaska (66%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Alaska maintains a 66% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 66¢.
• Ohio (Special) (64.5%): Sitting in third place with a 64.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Ohio (Special), treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Iowa (63.5%), Kansas (61.5%), and Nebraska (59%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Maine are still attracting notable interest.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome South Carolina currently trades at 47.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 36.6%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -10.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Michigan as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 44.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 59.5% — yielding an impressive +15% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include North Carolina (EV Gap: +3.7%) and Virginia (EV Gap: +3.2%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.