Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers

$114.2K Vol
Sep 30, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Detroit Tigers 58.5%
Washington Nationals 41.5%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, NRFI is dominating the market with an overwhelming 50% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $114.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • NRFI (50%): Currently commanding the highest probability, NRFI is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 50¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $722 in volume.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1NRFI50.0%$72250¢50¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for September 22 at 6:40PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals win the game.

This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI Valuation Analysis: Finding Market Mispricings & EV Gaps

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

  • The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies NRFI as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 50% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 50.4% — yielding an impressive +0.4% EV Gap.
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFIBest EV50.0%50.4%+0.4%

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 22, 2026

  • 09:50 AM
    RIRicardoRoberto
    $1.00

    Bought 1.694914 Detroit Tigers for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.59

  • 09:35 AM
    MIMiguel262144
    $24.19

    Sold 59 Washington Nationals for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.41

  • 09:27 AM
    0X0xc92CA3e01ad489f732550B0912991d7beFFb6f15-1770260769185
    $100.00

    Bought 169.491526 Detroit Tigers for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.59

  • 09:23 AM
    SBsbsigner
    $6.12

    Bought 10.37 Detroit Tigers for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.59

  • 09:06 AM
    NInigiri99
    $783.12

    Bought 1506 Under for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 at 0.52

  • 09:06 AM
    FOForecastication2
    $266.24

    Bought 512 Under for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 at 0.52

  • 08:54 AM
    SBsbsigner
    $3.46

    Bought 5.86 Detroit Tigers for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.59

  • 08:48 AM
    $1.00

    Bought 3.225807 Washington Nationals for Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) at 0.31

  • 08:02 AM
    YIyixinh
    $20.00

    Bought 47.619048 Washington Nationals for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.42

  • 08:02 AM
    NEnemed
    $1.00

    Bought 1.694914 Detroit Tigers for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.59

  • 07:48 AM
    $2.00

    Bought 4.761905 Washington Nationals for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.42

  • 06:58 AM
    LElee1991
    $2.00

    Bought 3.389831 Detroit Tigers for Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers at 0.59

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

2A1
0x2a07…7354
Event PnL
-$297.30
Volume
$59,471.68
Positions
Washington Nationals
HM2
HMLSF
Event PnL
-$145.08
Volume
$29,021.92
Positions
Washington Nationals
SD3
SDTrading
Event PnL
-$100.99
Volume
$20,202.33
Positions
Washington Nationals
324
0x32b4…3653
Event PnL
+$80.10
Volume
$16,020.67
Positions
Detroit Tigers
VE5
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$7.14
Volume
$15,000.00
Positions
Detroit Tigers
HO6
HomeRunHazard
Event PnL
+$95.80
Volume
$14,694.66
Positions
Detroit TigersDetroit TigersUnder+2
IM7
imjustkenisghey
Event PnL
+$61.46
Volume
$12,292.00
Positions
Detroit Tigers
CO8
CoffeeDespiser
Event PnL
+$50.00
Volume
$10,000.00
Positions
Detroit Tigers

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers"?

As of the latest update, NRFI leads the field as the frontrunner with a 50% win probability. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $114.2K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

How does the AI Fair Value differ from the live Market Trade Value?

The live Market Trade Value reflects public sentiment, order-book momentum and speculative capital. Our AI Fair Value is computed independently with quantitative models that strip out hype to focus on underlying data. When the two diverge, it creates an EV Gap, flagging where the market may be mispricing an outcome.

Which outcome represents the highest Expected Value (EV) right now?

Our latest run flags NRFI as the most significant mispricing. While the market trades it at a 50% implied probability, our AI calculates a Fair Value of 50.4% — an Expected Value gap of +0.4%, making it the premium value play in this pool.

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