Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

「Will Russia target Kyiv on...?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、October 1 が 9,905% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。October 3 が 9,125% で2番手、October 2 が 8,800% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $121.9K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• October 1 (9,905%)：最も高い確率を持つ October 1 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 9,905¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $530 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• October 3 (9,125%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、October 3 は 9,125% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 9,125¢ で取引されています。
• October 2 (8,800%)：8,800% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は October 2 に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：October 14 (8,700%)、October 15 (8,700%)、October 13 (8,650%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、October 4 のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.

The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.