Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

「Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、Joe Biden が 9,920% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Barack Obama が 9,900% で2番手、Hakeem Jeffries が 8,600% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $1.5K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• Joe Biden (9,920%)：最も高い確率を持つ Joe Biden は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 9,920¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $599 の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Barack Obama (9,900%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Barack Obama は 9,900% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 9,900¢ で取引されています。
• Hakeem Jeffries (8,600%)：8,600% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は Hakeem Jeffries に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：Jerome Powell (7,400%)、Abdul El-Sayed (7,400%)、Kathy Hochul (7,400%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Letitia James のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.

Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.

A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.

A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").

A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.