Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

「Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?」に関する最新の予測市場データによると、トレーダーの間で強いコンセンサスが形成されています。

現在、No meeting by December 31, 2027 が 7,450% という圧倒的な勝率で市場を支配しています。Turkey が 700% で2番手、Italy が 490% で3番手。この市場の賭け金はすでに $70.3K に達し、高い関心を示しています。

各結果の位置をより的確に評価するため、市場はインプライド確率と契約価格に基づいて3つの取引ティアに分けられます：

🥇 ティア1：圧倒的なリーダー

• No meeting by December 31, 2027 (7,450%)：最も高い確率を持つ No meeting by December 31, 2027 は板から厚く支持されています。この結果に賭けるトレーダーは 7,450¢ の「Buy Yes」契約価格に直面し、市場の強い確信を示しています。 この契約だけで $7.4K の出来高を生んでいます。

🥈 ティア2：主要な対抗馬

• Turkey (700%)：最も有力な対抗馬として、Turkey は 700% の的中確率を維持しています。「Buy Yes」株は現在 700¢ で取引されています。
• Italy (490%)：490% の確率で3番手につけ、市場は Italy に慎重な懐疑を示し、勢いが変わらない限り外部のワイルドカードと見なしています。

🥉 ティア3：ロングテール選択肢（合計約 0%）

トップ3以外にも、多くのマクロ変数と大穴の結果が追跡されています。個々の確率は低いものの、投機トレーダーにとって重要なヘッジとなります：

• 代替選択肢：Germany (445%)、Switzerland (430%)、Russia (430%) などが含まれます。
• 投機的出来高：統計的な可能性は低いものの、Other - Europe のようなロングテール契約は依然として相応の関心を集めています。

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31, 2027" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Zelenskyy are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy."

If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other."

For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.