Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, November 30 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 6.8% chance of winning. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $327.2K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• November 30 (6.8%): Currently commanding the highest probability, November 30 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 7¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $4.5K in volume.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.

"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome November 30 currently trades at 6.8%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 6.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -0.5%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.