Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,845% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 155%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $136.4K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (9,845%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,845¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (155%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 155% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 155¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.

"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.