FAA outage attributed to Iran?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “FAA outage attributed to Iran?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,795% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 205%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $142K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (9,795%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,795¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (205%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 205% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 205¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026.

A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by the Iranian state, including its armed forces (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused on behalf of the aforementioned Iranian state services will also qualify.

Attributions to Iranian proxy or partner groups, such as Hezbollah, will not qualify, unless the statement also states that the Iranian state, as defined above, carried out, ordered, or directed the outage.

Statements describing Iranian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Iranian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Iranian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.