2028 Presidential Election: New Hampshire Winner

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “2028 Presidential Election: New Hampshire Winner”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, Republican Party domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 4000%. Democratic Party le sigue en segundo lugar con 3500%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $184, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• Republican Party (4000%): Con la probabilidad más alta, Republican Party cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 4000¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado. Solo este contrato ha generado $80 de volumen.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Democratic Party (3500%): Como la alternativa más viable, Democratic Party mantiene una probabilidad del 3500% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 3500¢.

The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have.

This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used.

The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the statewide New Hampshire results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used.

This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.