Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?

Según los datos más recientes del mercado de predicción para la consulta “Supreme Court sides with Apple in Epic Games appeal?”, los operadores han formado un fuerte consenso.

Actualmente, No domina el mercado con una abrumadora probabilidad de victoria del 5050%. Yes le sigue en segundo lugar con 4950%. El volumen de apuestas de este mercado ya alcanza $21, lo que refleja un enorme interés.

Para evaluar mejor la posición de cada resultado posible, el mercado puede segmentarse en tres niveles de negociación según la probabilidad implícita y el precio de los contratos:

🥇 Nivel 1: El líder dominante

• No (5050%): Con la probabilidad más alta, No cuenta con un fuerte respaldo del libro de órdenes. Quienes quieran apostar por este resultado se enfrentan a un precio de contrato “Buy Yes” de 5050¢, señal de una gran convicción del mercado.

🥈 Nivel 2: Los principales aspirantes

• Yes (4950%): Como la alternativa más viable, Yes mantiene una probabilidad del 4950% de resolverse a favor. Sus acciones “Buy Yes” cotizan actualmente a 4950¢.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Apple Inc. v. Epic Games, Inc. (No. 25-1311), issues a decision on the merits that reverses or vacates, in whole or in part, the Ninth Circuit’s judgment under review (its affirmance of the district court’s 2025 contempt ruling against Apple and the accompanying modifications to the injunction on App Store anti-steering rules and developer fees), by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only a decision on the merits of this case (a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion) will qualify. Emergency orders, stays, and other interim orders will not qualify. A decision that vacates the Ninth Circuit’s judgment and remands for further proceedings will resolve this market to “Yes”. A decision that affirms the Ninth Circuit’s judgment in full will resolve this market to “No”.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, withdrawn or settled (including by a settlement between Apple and Epic Games), or otherwise concluded without a decision on the merits, or no qualifying decision has been issued by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”, regardless of whether the case remains pending.

This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.