FAA outage attributed to Iran?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „FAA outage attributed to Iran?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert No den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 9.785%. Yes folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 215%. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $142,8K erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• No (9.785%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird No vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 9.785¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• Yes (215%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält Yes eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 215%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 215¢ gehandelt.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026.

A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by the Iranian state, including its armed forces (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused on behalf of the aforementioned Iranian state services will also qualify.

Attributions to Iranian proxy or partner groups, such as Hezbollah, will not qualify, unless the statement also states that the Iranian state, as defined above, carried out, ordered, or directed the outage.

Statements describing Iranian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Iranian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own.

Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Iranian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.