Anthropic opening share price on IPO day?

Laut den neuesten Prognosemarktdaten zur Frage „Anthropic opening share price on IPO day?“ haben die Händler einen starken Konsens gebildet.

Derzeit dominiert $90 to $100 den Markt mit einer überwältigenden Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 4.950%. $110 to $120 folgt auf dem zweiten Platz mit 4.950%, während $70 to $80 mit 4.900% auf dem dritten Platz liegt. Das Wettvolumen dieses Marktes hat bereits $472 erreicht, was auf großes Interesse hindeutet.

Um besser einzuschätzen, wo jedes mögliche Ergebnis steht, lässt sich der Markt anhand der impliziten Wahrscheinlichkeit und der Kontraktpreise in drei Handelsstufen unterteilen:

🥇 Stufe 1: Der dominante Spitzenreiter

• $90 to $100 (4.950%): Mit der höchsten Wahrscheinlichkeit wird $90 to $100 vom Orderbuch stark favorisiert. Wer auf dieses Ergebnis setzen will, sieht sich einem „Buy Yes“-Kontraktpreis von 4.950¢ gegenüber – ein Zeichen hoher Marktüberzeugung.

🥈 Stufe 2: Die wichtigsten Herausforderer

• $110 to $120 (4.950%): Als tragfähigste Alternative hält $110 to $120 eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 4.950%, einzutreten. Seine „Buy Yes“-Anteile werden derzeit zu 4.950¢ gehandelt.
• $70 to $80 (4.900%): Auf dem dritten Platz mit 4.900% Wahrscheinlichkeit zeigt der Markt eine maßvolle Skepsis gegenüber $70 to $80 und behandelt es als Außenseiter, sofern sich die Dynamik nicht ändert.

🥉 Stufe 3: Die Long-Tail-Optionen (zusammen ~0%)

Über die Top-3 hinaus wird ein breites Feld an Makrovariablen und Außenseiter-Ergebnissen verfolgt. Auch wenn ihre Einzelwahrscheinlichkeiten niedrig sind, bilden sie wichtige Absicherungen für spekulative Händler:

• Alternative Optionen: Dazu gehören $80 to $90 (4.900%), $100 to $110 (4.900%) und $120+ (4.900%).
• Spekulatives Volumen: Trotz geringer statistischer Wahrscheinlichkeit ziehen bestimmte Long-Tail-Kontrakte wie <$70 weiterhin nennenswertes Interesse an.

This market will resolve according to the official opening price of Anthropic's Class A common stock on its first day of trading on the secondary market on its primary exchange, as published by that exchange.

The official opening price is the price of the first trade of Anthropic's Class A common stock executed on its primary exchange, as set by that exchange's IPO opening cross or opening auction and published by the exchange as the official opening price. Only trading on the primary exchange counts. The IPO price at which shares are sold to investors in the offering, any indicative or expected opening price published before the first trade, and any trading before the exchange listing (such as on private-share platforms or in pre-IPO or "when-issued" markets) will not be considered.

If the opening price falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket (e.g., exactly $80.00 resolves to "$80 to $90").

Anthropic’s first day of trading refers to the first day Anthropic’s Class A common stock trades on the secondary market on its primary exchange.

For this market, an IPO means an underwritten, SEC-registered offering of newly issued shares of Anthropic’s Class A common stock sold to the public for cash under a registration statement on Form S-1 that the SEC has declared effective, where the shares have been approved for listing on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American, the Nasdaq Stock Market, or Cboe BZX Exchange, and the offering has been priced, as shown by the first final prospectus filed with the SEC under Rule 424(b). Direct listings, mergers with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), reverse mergers, private placements, and listings outside the U.S. will not count. An IPO counts as completed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET if the pricing date stated on the cover of that first final prospectus is on or before that time, even if the prospectus is filed afterwards; if Anthropic’s registration statement has been declared effective by then but the prospectus has not yet been filed, this market will wait until 11:59 PM ET on the second business day after December 31, 2027 for it. Because this market depends on trading in Anthropic’s shares, if the IPO is priced but the shares never begin trading on the listing exchange, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”. If Anthropic does not complete an IPO by then, or publicly announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by or merged into another company before completing one, this market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”, regardless of whether that transaction is later completed or terminated. An IPO by a holding company formed to hold all or substantially all of Anthropic’s business for the purpose of the IPO counts as Anthropic’s IPO.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange's official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

If no official opening price for Anthropic's first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.