2026 Midterms: House Turnout

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “2026 Midterms: House Turnout”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 120-125m is dominating the market with an overwhelming 51.2% chance of winning. 115-120m follows in second place at 38.5%, while 125-130m sits in third with 1.4%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $201.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 120-125m (51.2%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 120-125m is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 51¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $66.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 115-120m (38.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 115-120m maintains a 38.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 39¢.
• 125-130m (1.4%): Sitting in third place with a 1.4% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 125-130m, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~8.9%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes <85m (0.1%), 85-90m (0.1%), and 90-95m (0.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like 95-100m are still attracting notable interest.

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.

Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome 115-120m currently trades at 38.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 18.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -20.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies 130m+ as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.1% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 3.1% — yielding an impressive +3.1% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include 90-95m (EV Gap: +1%) and 95-100m (EV Gap: +1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.