Automatic Data Processing Inc（ADP）の株式分析ADPAutomatic Data Processing Inc

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Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls Report: BofA Says Friday's Jobs Data May Not Be Decisive, September Rate Hike Key Still Lies in CPI As bond markets experience sharp volatility, investors are awaiting two key U.S. data releases that could influence Fed decisions: Friday's August non-farm payrolls report and the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) due September 11. However, in the view of Bank of America, these two data points carry different weight at the Fed's September 15-16 policy meeting. The bank believes the jobs report is more of an "appetizer," while the CPI remains the "main course" that will truly determine whether the Fed raises rates in September. BofA analysts said Wednesday: "Non-farm payrolls are unlikely to be the decisive factor for a September rate hike. A significantly weak report could lower the odds of a hike, but CPI remains the key data determining whether the Fed delivers. We maintain our call for a September rate hike." Non-farm payrolls matter, but may not be decisive. Markets currently expect August CPI to rise 3.4% year-over-year, unchanged from July. However, with inflationary pressures from the U.S.-Iran conflict still unresolved, actual data could come in higher than expected. The labor market itself is also showing signs of cooling. The ADP private payrolls report released September 2 showed U.S. businesses added 38,000 private jobs in August, below the 48,000 economists had forecast and marking the lowest gain in seven months. BofA therefore believes that unless Friday's jobs data shows a clear downside surprise, the employment report is unlikely to be the final deciding factor in September FOMC discussions. The bank emphasizes that inflation remains the Fed's primary concern. This view contrasts with how markets have previously reacted to jobs data. After July non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000, markets trimmed September rate hike expectations; but BofA subsequently maintained its view that the Fed will continue raising rates this year, expecting the hiking cycle to begin in September. Warsh has further shifted policy focus toward inflation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole last week has also elevated the importance of inflation data for September policy decisions. Warsh described the U.S. labor market as broadly stable and consistent with full employment, while stressing that inflation remains above the Fed's target. In BofA's view, as long as jobs data does not show a very clear deterioration, September FOMC policy discussions will remain centered on inflation. Bloomberg Economics analysts Anna Wong, Andrew Sacher, and Eliza Winger said Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech has raised the likelihood of a September hike and changed how markets will interpret next week's economic data. The three analysts noted: "The August jobs report will still be the headline data, but we expect its performance may be unremarkable, and this time its influence may be less than usual." They further explained that Warsh has already characterized the labor market as healthy, noting that weak job growth often stems more from demographic factors than from signs of recession. This means that even if August non-farm payrolls come in soft, as long as there is no clear deterioration beyond expectations, markets will still need to wait for the September 11 CPI to determine whether the Fed will deliver a September hike.