
Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva
核心摘要
根據「Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Completed Match 以壓倒性的 50% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $612.8K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Completed Match (50%):Completed Match 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 50¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $4.2K 的成交量。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Completed Match | 50.0% | $4.2K | 50¢ | 50¢ |
裁決規則
This market refers to the tennis match between Anna Bondar and Alina Charaeva in the Korea Open, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 9:00PM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Anna Bondar' if Anna Bondar advances against Alina Charaeva.
This market will resolve to 'Alina Charaeva' if Alina Charaeva advances against Anna Bondar.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算,以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離:
- 最佳價值標的(最高 EV):我們的模型將 Completed Match 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 50% 的交易機率,而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 99%——形成可觀的 +49% EV 差。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Completed MatchBest EV | 50.0% | 99.0% | +49.0% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 23, 2026
- 11:24 PMFEferrariChampions2026$2,561.95
Bought 7116.54 Alina Charaeva for Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.36
- 11:07 PMSUsuntori$9.52
Bought 26.444445 Alina Charaeva for Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.36
- 11:04 PM0X0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186$4.82
Bought 9.649216 Under for Bondar vs. Charaeva: Match O/U 21.5 at 0.5
- 11:04 PM0X0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186$4.87
Bought 9.54902 Over for Bondar vs. Charaeva: Match O/U 21.5 at 0.51
- 11:04 PMSDsdsvshub-2$6.00
Sold 100 No for Korea Open: Completed Match: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.06
- 11:04 PM0X0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186$4.84
Bought 13.444445 Alina Charaeva for Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.36
- 11:01 PMSDsdsvshub-2$96.00
Bought 100 No for Korea Open: Completed Match: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.96
- 11:01 PMRKrkornetskyi$1.00
Bought 2.777778 Alina Charaeva for Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.36
- 10:00 PMUSuser0000000$25.60
Bought 40 Anna Bondar for Game Spread: Anna Bondar (-1.5) vs Alina Charaeva (+1.5) at 0.64
- 09:32 PMTETechparme2000$3.00
Bought 4.615385 Anna Bondar for Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.65
- 09:27 PM——$179.82
Bought 499.5 Alina Charaeva for Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.36
- 09:27 PM——$179.82
Bought 499.5 Alina Charaeva for Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva at 0.36
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Korea Open: Anna Bondar vs Alina Charaeva」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Completed Match 以 50% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $612.8K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值(EV)最高?
最新一輪測算顯示,Completed Match 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 50%,而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 99%——形成 +49% 的期望值差,是該市場中最具價值的標的。
