US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles)
核心摘要
根據「US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Alexander Zverev 以壓倒性的 7,150% 獲勝機率主導市場；Carlos Alcaraz 以 6,750% 位居第二，Ben Shelton 以 1,700% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $71.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Alexander Zverev (7,150%)：Alexander Zverev 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,150¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $7.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Carlos Alcaraz (6,750%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Carlos Alcaraz 保持著 6,750% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 6,750¢。
- Ben Shelton (1,700%)：以 1,700% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Ben Shelton 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Frances Tiafoe (1,220%)，以及 Alexander Blockx (500%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Frances Tiafoe 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Zverev | 7150.0% | $7.5K | 7150¢ | -7050¢ |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6750.0% | $15.0K | 6750¢ | -6650¢ |
| 3 | Ben Shelton | 1700.0% | $2.8K | 1700¢ | -1600¢ |
| 4 | Frances Tiafoe | 1220.0% | $841 | 1220¢ | -1120¢ |
| 5 | Alexander Blockx | 500.0% | $1.9K | 500¢ | -400¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 8, 2026
- 08:17 AMGPGP100$4.35
Sold 29 Yes for Will Ben Shelton advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.15
- 07:44 AMANAntiVaxxer$1.60
Bought 5 No for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.32
- 07:11 AMDRDr.PNL$18.18
Sold 19.98 No for Will Alexander Blockx advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.91
- 06:12 AMDIdips.$2.72
Bought 4 Yes for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 06:12 AMDIdips.$6.80
Bought 10 Yes for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 04:05 AMGAGarmonbozia$2.80
Bought 20 Yes for Will Frances Tiafoe advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.14
- 03:52 AMHOHouseOfPol$15.00
Bought 15 No for Will Luciano Darderi advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 1
- 03:51 AM——$4.99
Bought 4.994 No for Will Luciano Darderi advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 1
- 03:47 AMHOHouseOfPol$53.00
Bought 53 No for Will Luciano Darderi advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 1
- 03:41 AMYOyorkcasd$189.00
Bought 277.941175 Yes for Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 03:24 AM0X0x012a30C4a3502392CaE914b22D617248b0559fA9-1780159816485$81.22
Bought 119.44 Yes for Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 03:19 AMYOyorkcasd$218.44
Sold 336.06 Yes for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.65
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles)」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Alexander Zverev 以 7,150% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Carlos Alcaraz（6,750%），以及 Ben Shelton（1,700%）。該市場總成交量已達 $71.5K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。