Where will it rain on September 9?

根據「Where will it rain on September 9?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Boston, MA 以壓倒性的 5,050% 獲勝機率主導市場；New Orleans, LA 以 5,050% 位居第二，Los Angeles, CA 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Boston, MA (5,050%)：Boston, MA 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,050¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• New Orleans, LA (5,050%)：作為最可行的替代選項，New Orleans, LA 保持著 5,050% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,050¢。
• Los Angeles, CA (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Los Angeles, CA 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Chicago, IL (5,000%)、Houston, TX (5,000%)，以及 Denver, CO (5,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Miami, FL 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on September 9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station.

A report of trace ("T") does not qualify.

The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types.

The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning.

Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them.

This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.