
Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
核心摘要
根據「Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Harj Dhaliwal 以壓倒性的 4,250% 獲勝機率主導市場;Harman Preet Singh 以 4,200% 位居第二,Jessie Sunner 以 3,550% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Harj Dhaliwal (4,250%):Harj Dhaliwal 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,250¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Harman Preet Singh (4,200%):作為最可行的替代選項,Harman Preet Singh 保持著 4,200% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,200¢。
- Jessie Sunner (3,550%):以 3,550% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Jessie Sunner 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harj Dhaliwal | 4250.0% | — | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 2 | Harman Preet Singh | 4200.0% | — | 4200¢ | -4100¢ |
| 3 | Jessie Sunner | 3550.0% | — | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
裁決規則
General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).
常見問題
目前市場對「Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Harj Dhaliwal 以 4,250% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Harman Preet Singh(4,200%),以及 Jessie Sunner(3,550%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
