Closer Senate Race: Iowa or Maine?

根據「Closer Senate Race: Iowa or Maine?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Iowa 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；Maine 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Iowa (5,000%)：Iowa 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Maine (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Maine 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Iowa" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Iowa has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Maine Senate election.

This market will resolve to "Maine" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in Maine has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the Iowa Senate election.

If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.