Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

$1.9M Vol
2026年9月26日
Active
機率趨勢
Team Yandex 71.5%
Aurora 28.5%

核心摘要

根據「Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,O/U 2.5 Games 以壓倒性的 9,995% 獲勝機率主導市場;Ends in Daytime 以 5,000% 位居第二,Both Teams Beat Roshan 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.9M,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • O/U 2.5 Games (9,995%):O/U 2.5 Games 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,995¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $549 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Ends in Daytime (5,000%):作為最可行的替代選項,Ends in Daytime 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
  • Both Teams Beat Roshan (5,000%):以 5,000% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Both Teams Beat Roshan 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 Both Teams Destroy Barracks (5,000%)、Any Player Ultra Kill (5,000%),以及 Any Player Rampage (5,000%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 First Blood in Game 1? 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1O/U 2.5 Games9995.0%$5499995¢-9895¢
2Ends in Daytime5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
3Both Teams Beat Roshan5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
4Both Teams Destroy Barracks5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
5Any Player Ultra Kill5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
6Any Player Rampage5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
7First Blood in Game 1?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
8First Blood in Game 2?5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Match Winner2050.0%$301.8K2050¢-1950¢
10Ends in Daytime950.0%—950¢-850¢
11Both Teams Beat Roshan950.0%—950¢-850¢
12Both Teams Destroy Barracks950.0%—950¢-850¢
13Any Player Ultra Kill950.0%—950¢-850¢
14Any Player Rampage950.0%—950¢-850¢
15Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?50.0%—50¢50¢
16Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?50.0%—50¢50¢
17Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?50.0%—50¢50¢
18Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2?50.0%—50¢50¢
19Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5)45.0%$36545¢55¢
20Game 2 Winner5.0%$613.4K5¢95¢
21Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)5.0%$32.3K5¢95¢

裁決規則

This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper Bracket Semifinal 2 match between Aurora and Team Yandex in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Aurora" if Aurora win the match against Team Yandex.

This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Aurora.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 25, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 25, 2026

  • 11:37 AM
    M8M864
    $5.00

    Bought 6.41 Team Yandex for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs at 0.78

  • 11:27 AM
    ——
    $99.92

    Sold 129.76 Team Yandex for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs at 0.77

  • 11:18 AM
    0X0x84AbdB5344A9c67aeD852d75Ad308AFEEC10eEFd-1772931226118
    $5.00

    Bought 21.739131 Aurora for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs at 0.23

  • 11:07 AM
    MYMysaenn
    $10.14

    Bought 13 Team Yandex for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs at 0.78

  • 11:04 AM
    VEvermida
    $2.00

    Bought 3.921569 Team Yandex for Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.51

  • 10:54 AM
    RERenatofs
    $1.00

    Bought 1.960785 Team Yandex for Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.51

  • 10:34 AM
    FOFortuneMops
    $2.90

    Bought 10 Aurora for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner at 0.29

  • 10:34 AM
    FOFortuneMops
    $21.00

    Bought 70 Aurora for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner at 0.3

  • 10:33 AM
    ODodifipa
    $2,499.87

    Bought 10868.99 Aurora for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs at 0.23

  • 10:16 AM
    STSteakovoch
    $95.00

    Bought 190 Aurora for Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5) at 0.5

  • 09:55 AM
    NEneutralwave23
    $9.39

    Bought 12.038459 Team Yandex for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs at 0.78

  • 09:19 AM
    SAsahedd
    $1.00

    Bought 4.347827 Aurora for Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs at 0.23

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

ST1
StasPanda
事件損益
+$104.08
成交量
$20,145.11
持倉數
Team Yandex
OD2
odifipa
事件損益
-$54.33
成交量
$10,868.99
持倉數
Aurora
TR3
TrippleEX
事件損益
-$250.00
成交量
$9,999.99
持倉數
Aurora
SO4
Sodoo
事件損益
+$238.69
成交量
$9,547.03
持倉數
Team Yandex
SI5
SimpleTony
事件損益
-$20.00
成交量
$4,000.00
持倉數
Aurora
CA6
CAcap
事件損益
+$0.07
成交量
$2,639.85
持倉數
Aurora
UD7
udysof
事件損益
-$65.30
成交量
$1,540.00
持倉數
AuroraAurora
LO8
loldot
事件損益
-$22.99
成交量
$1,436.40
持倉數
Team YandexAuroraTeam Yandex

常見問題

目前市場對「Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,O/U 2.5 Games 以 9,995% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Ends in Daytime(5,000%),以及 Both Teams Beat Roshan(5,000%)。該市場總成交量已達 $1.9M,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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