Bitcoin above ___ on September 9?
核心摘要
根據「Bitcoin above ___ on September 9?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，68,000 以壓倒性的 9,995% 獲勝機率主導市場；70,000 以 9,985% 位居第二，72,000 以 9,960% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $243.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 68,000 (9,995%)：68,000 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,995¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $8.4K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 70,000 (9,985%)：作為最可行的替代選項，70,000 保持著 9,985% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,985¢。
- 72,000 (9,960%)：以 9,960% 的機率位列第三，市場對 72,000 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 74,000 (9,875%)、76,000 (9,330%)，以及 78,000 (5,950%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 80,000 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68,000 | 9995.0% | $8.4K | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | 70,000 | 9985.0% | $30.0K | 9985¢ | -9885¢ |
| 3 | 72,000 | 9960.0% | $18.2K | 9960¢ | -9860¢ |
| 4 | 74,000 | 9875.0% | $27.8K | 9875¢ | -9775¢ |
| 5 | 76,000 | 9330.0% | $35.8K | 9330¢ | -9230¢ |
| 6 | 78,000 | 5950.0% | $21.2K | 5950¢ | -5850¢ |
| 7 | 80,000 | 1350.0% | $19.0K | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 8 | 82,000 | 260.0% | $20.2K | 260¢ | -160¢ |
| 9 | 84,000 | 60.0% | $18.9K | 60¢ | 40¢ |
| 10 | 86,000 | 40.0% | $30.7K | 40¢ | 60¢ |
| 11 | 88,000 | 5.0% | $16.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 8, 2026
- 09:33 AM0X0xDB5$3.60
Sold 20 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 9? at 0.18
- 09:29 AMSMsmbmfnfd$2.34
Bought 2.33925 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMSKskgjbkjdgh$8.70
Bought 8.70325 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMKJkjgbkjthtrh$12.28
Bought 12.2814 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMSJsjkmfbdbg$13.73
Bought 13.7286 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMKJkjdghkjffg$13.33
Bought 13.3266 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMGJgjwbkjgwegre$12.58
Bought 12.5828 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMBJbjshrjbgkjghty$12.51
Bought 12.5124 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMSJsjvndkjb$12.29
Bought 12.2914 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMKWkwjefhkjgt$13.69
Bought 13.6884 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMNMnmdbnmnfbg$1.01
Bought 1.005 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:23 AMPLplanktonXD$0.36
Bought 6 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 9? at 0.06
常見問題
目前市場對「Bitcoin above ___ on September 9?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，68,000 以 9,995% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 70,000（9,985%），以及 72,000（9,960%）。該市場總成交量已達 $243.8K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。