Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?

根据「Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by ___?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31, 2026 以压倒性的 18.5% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31, 2026 以 13.5% 位居第二，November 30, 2026 以 13.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $64.6K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31, 2026 (18.5%)：December 31, 2026 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 19¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $12.5K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• October 31, 2026 (13.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31, 2026 保持着 13.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 14¢。
• November 30, 2026 (13.5%)：以 13.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 November 30, 2026 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 54.5%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 September 30, 2026 (10.5%)、July 31, 2026 (5.3%)，以及 August 31, 2026 (4.5%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 June 30, 2026 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if https://x.com/elonmusk posts the listed term by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all text posted by the listed account in main feed posts, quote posts, and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but quoted posts and reposts will not count.

Text posted in images, memes, or other non-animated, non-video media that are not strictly text will qualify towards a "Yes" resolution only if the listed term is spelled out clearly and in full. (e.g., words spelled out in a letter posted as a .jpg will qualify, however a word posted as part of an animated .gif will not.)

Any plural or possessive forms of the listed term, as well as variance in capitalizations, will count toward the resolution of this market, regardless of context. Other forms of the listed term will NOT count.

Extraneous symbols being inserted into a word (ex: H@perl1quid, for "Hyperliquid") will disqualify it from counting toward a "Yes" resolution. Sigils at the beginnings of words, such as hashtags, "@" symbols, or denotations of currency, will not disqualify a term from counting towards a "Yes" resolution.

Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: Hyperliquidd or Hyperliqid, for "Hyperliquid"), will not count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of context or intent.

Instances where the listed term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

Posts published from https://x.com/elonmusk during a period in which the account is verifiably compromised or hacked, as confirmed by Elon Musk or X, do not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's verified X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

Please note, only the https://x.com/elonmusk verified X account counts for this market. If Elon Musk posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：November 30, 2026 当前交易价为 13.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 11.3%，形成 -2.2% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 June 30, 2026 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 2.7% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 50.2%——形成可观的 +47.5% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 July 31, 2026（EV 差：+42.3%）以及 August 31, 2026（EV 差：+11.5%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。