Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

根据「Who will Trump speak to by October 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Andy Burnham 以压倒性的 78% 获胜概率主导市场；Mohammed bin Salman 以 71% 位居第二，Mark Carney 以 69% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $83.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Andy Burnham (78%)：Andy Burnham 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 78¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.2K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Mohammed bin Salman (71%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Mohammed bin Salman 保持着 71% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 71¢。
• Mark Carney (69%)：以 69% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Mark Carney 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Friedrich Merz (67.5%)、Elon Musk (58.5%)，以及 Vladimir Putin (54%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Volodymyr Zelenskyy 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.

Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.

This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe.

If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Friedrich Merz 当前交易价为 67.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 59.7%，形成 -7.9% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Nicolás Maduro 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 1.1% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 34%——形成可观的 +32.9% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Ursula von der Leyen（EV 差：+20.2%）以及 Yoon Suk Yeol（EV 差：+13.8%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。