US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles)
核心摘要
根据「US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Alexander Zverev 以压倒性的 7,150% 获胜概率主导市场；Carlos Alcaraz 以 6,750% 位居第二，Ben Shelton 以 1,700% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $71.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Alexander Zverev (7,150%)：Alexander Zverev 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,150¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $7.5K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Carlos Alcaraz (6,750%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Carlos Alcaraz 保持着 6,750% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 6,750¢。
- Ben Shelton (1,700%)：以 1,700% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Ben Shelton 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Frances Tiafoe (1,220%)，以及 Alexander Blockx (500%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Frances Tiafoe 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Zverev | 7150.0% | $7.5K | 7150¢ | -7050¢ |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6750.0% | $15.0K | 6750¢ | -6650¢ |
| 3 | Ben Shelton | 1700.0% | $2.8K | 1700¢ | -1600¢ |
| 4 | Frances Tiafoe | 1220.0% | $841 | 1220¢ | -1120¢ |
| 5 | Alexander Blockx | 500.0% | $1.9K | 500¢ | -400¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open per US Open rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Final at the 2026 US Open (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 US Open is cancelled, postponed after September 27, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Final have not been officially confirmed by the USTA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the USTA and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 08:17 AMGPGP100$4.35
Sold 29 Yes for Will Ben Shelton advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.15
- 07:44 AMANAntiVaxxer$1.60
Bought 5 No for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.32
- 07:11 AMDRDr.PNL$18.18
Sold 19.98 No for Will Alexander Blockx advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.91
- 06:12 AMDIdips.$2.72
Bought 4 Yes for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 06:12 AMDIdips.$6.80
Bought 10 Yes for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 04:05 AMGAGarmonbozia$2.80
Bought 20 Yes for Will Frances Tiafoe advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.14
- 03:52 AMHOHouseOfPol$15.00
Bought 15 No for Will Luciano Darderi advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 1
- 03:51 AM——$4.99
Bought 4.994 No for Will Luciano Darderi advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 1
- 03:47 AMHOHouseOfPol$53.00
Bought 53 No for Will Luciano Darderi advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 1
- 03:41 AMYOyorkcasd$189.00
Bought 277.941175 Yes for Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 03:24 AM0X0x012a30C4a3502392CaE914b22D617248b0559fA9-1780159816485$81.22
Bought 119.44 Yes for Will Carlos Alcaraz advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.68
- 03:19 AMYOyorkcasd$218.44
Sold 336.06 Yes for Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Men's Singles at the 2026 US Open? at 0.65
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「US Open 2026: To Reach the Final (Men's Singles)」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Alexander Zverev 以 7,150% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Carlos Alcaraz（6,750%），以及 Ben Shelton（1,700%）。该市场总成交量已达 $71.5K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。