Core CPI MoM - September 2026

$93.9K Vol
2026年10月15日
Active
概率趋势
0.3% 100.0%
0.2% 0.1%
0.1% 0.1%
≤0.0% 0.1%
0.4% 0.1%

核心摘要

根据「Core CPI MoM - September 2026」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，0.6%+ 以压倒性的 0.3% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $93.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • 0.6%+ (0.3%)：0.6%+ 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 0¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.7K 的成交量。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
10.6%+0.3%$2.7K0¢100¢

裁决规则

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.

If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 0.6%+ 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.3% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 6.5%——形成可观的 +6.3% EV 差。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
0.6%+Best EV0.3%6.5%+6.3%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Oct 14, 2026

  • 08:25 AM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $4.76

    Bought 34 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.14

  • 08:04 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $1.77

    Bought 59 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September? at 0.03

  • 08:04 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $7.67

    Bought 59 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.13

  • 07:53 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $3.25

    Bought 25 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.13

  • 07:53 AM
    GRgrinder1011
    $0.50

    Bought 25 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in September? at 0.02

  • 07:30 AM
    0X0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438
    $0.61

    Sold 0.89 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? at 0.69

  • 07:30 AM
    0X0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438
    $0.77

    Sold 0.89 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September? at 0.87

  • 07:30 AM
    3I3iron
    $68.04

    Bought 138.862942 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.49

  • 07:30 AM
    EQeqzwe103qwie
    $77.05

    Sold 148.18 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.52

  • 06:28 AM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 2.040817 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.49

  • 06:17 AM
    ——
    $1.00

    Bought 2.040817 No for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.49

  • 06:07 AM
    EIEicardo
    $50.00

    Bought 96.153847 Yes for Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? at 0.52

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

AL1
allen114
事件盈亏
-$6,941.06
成交量
$10,215.01
持仓数
No
A52
0xa5ef…2966
事件盈亏
+$3,545.97
成交量
$7,091.94
持仓数
NoNo
673
0x67ba…fafe
事件盈亏
+$3,373.07
成交量
$5,336.62
持仓数
Yes
PE4
perfectnostalgia
事件盈亏
-$200.40
成交量
$4,493.19
持仓数
Yes
PO5
podairpod
事件盈亏
-$78.86
成交量
$2,413.53
持仓数
Yes
666
0x66E7…3938
事件盈亏
+$43.38
成交量
$2,036.06
持仓数
NoYes
TU7
turtle911
事件盈亏
+$1.72
成交量
$1,267.11
持仓数
Yes
TH8
TheElement115
事件盈亏
+$30.50
成交量
$1,031.02
持仓数
Yes

常见问题

当前市场对「Core CPI MoM - September 2026」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，0.6%+ 以 0.3% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $93.9K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，0.6%+ 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 0.3%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 6.5%——形成 +6.3% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

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