Bitcoin above ___ on September 9?
核心摘要
根据「Bitcoin above ___ on September 9?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，68,000 以压倒性的 9,995% 获胜概率主导市场；70,000 以 9,985% 位居第二，72,000 以 9,960% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $243.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 68,000 (9,995%)：68,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,995¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $8.4K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 70,000 (9,985%)：作为最可行的替代选项，70,000 保持着 9,985% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,985¢。
- 72,000 (9,960%)：以 9,960% 的概率位列第三，市场对 72,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 74,000 (9,875%)、76,000 (9,330%)，以及 78,000 (5,950%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 80,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68,000 | 9995.0% | $8.4K | 9995¢ | -9895¢ |
| 2 | 70,000 | 9985.0% | $30.0K | 9985¢ | -9885¢ |
| 3 | 72,000 | 9960.0% | $18.2K | 9960¢ | -9860¢ |
| 4 | 74,000 | 9875.0% | $27.8K | 9875¢ | -9775¢ |
| 5 | 76,000 | 9330.0% | $35.8K | 9330¢ | -9230¢ |
| 6 | 78,000 | 5950.0% | $21.2K | 5950¢ | -5850¢ |
| 7 | 80,000 | 1350.0% | $19.0K | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 8 | 82,000 | 260.0% | $20.2K | 260¢ | -160¢ |
| 9 | 84,000 | 60.0% | $18.9K | 60¢ | 40¢ |
| 10 | 86,000 | 40.0% | $30.7K | 40¢ | 60¢ |
| 11 | 88,000 | 5.0% | $16.3K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 09:33 AM0X0xDB5$3.60
Sold 20 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 9? at 0.18
- 09:29 AMSMsmbmfnfd$2.34
Bought 2.33925 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMSKskgjbkjdgh$8.70
Bought 8.70325 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMKJkjgbkjthtrh$12.28
Bought 12.2814 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMSJsjkmfbdbg$13.73
Bought 13.7286 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMKJkjdghkjffg$13.33
Bought 13.3266 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMGJgjwbkjgwegre$12.58
Bought 12.5828 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMBJbjshrjbgkjghty$12.51
Bought 12.5124 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMSJsjvndkjb$12.29
Bought 12.2914 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMKWkwjefhkjgt$13.69
Bought 13.6884 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:29 AMNMnmdbnmnfbg$1.01
Bought 1.005 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 9? at 1
- 09:23 AMPLplanktonXD$0.36
Bought 6 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 9? at 0.06
常见问题
当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on September 9?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，68,000 以 9,995% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 70,000（9,985%），以及 72,000（9,960%）。该市场总成交量已达 $243.8K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。