Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury

$158.9K Vol
Sep 25, 2026
Active
Probability Trend
Las Vegas Aces 96.5%
Phoenix Mercury 15.0%

Core Summary

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.5 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,995% chance of winning. Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury follows in second place at 9,980%, while Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 5.5 sits in third with 9,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $158.9K, reflecting intense industry interest.

Breakdown of Competitive Tiers

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

  • Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.5 (9,995%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.5 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,995¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

  • Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury (9,980%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury maintains a 9,980% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 9,980¢.
  • Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 5.5 (9,950%): Sitting in third place with a 9,950% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 5.5, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

  • Alternative Options: This includes Spread -9.5 (9,775%), O/U 174.5 (8,750%), and O/U 175.5 (8,300%).
  • Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 4.5 are still attracting notable interest.

Comprehensive Order Book & Pricing Dashboard

The table below outlines the full breakdown of contract prices, probabilities, and market depth for all listed outcomes in this prediction pool:

RankPredicted OutcomeWin ProbabilityTrading VolumeBuy Yes (Cost)Buy No (Cost)
1Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.59995.0%—9995¢-9895¢
2Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury9980.0%$63.1K9980¢-9880¢
3Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 5.59950.0%—9950¢-9850¢
4Spread -9.59775.0%$51.6K9775¢-9675¢
5O/U 174.58750.0%$23.7K8750¢-8650¢
6O/U 175.58300.0%$20.4K8300¢-8200¢
7Jackie Young: Rebounds O/U 4.55050.0%—5050¢-4950¢
8A'ja Wilson: Points O/U 24.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
9Jackie Young: Points O/U 20.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
10Chelsea Gray: Points O/U 11.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
11A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
12Chelsea Gray: Rebounds O/U 2.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
13A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 3.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
14Kahleah Copper: Points O/U 19.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
15Alyssa Thomas: Points O/U 14.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
16Alyssa Thomas: Rebounds O/U 9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
17Alyssa Thomas: Assists O/U 9.55000.0%—5000¢-4900¢

Result Rules

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for September 24 at 10:00PM ET:

If the Las Vegas Aces win, the market will resolve to "Las Vegas Aces".

If the Phoenix Mercury win, the market will resolve to "Phoenix Mercury".

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.

If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Trade Activities

Here is the trade activities for this event.

Sep 25, 2026

  • 12:11 AM
    GBGBSM2
    $23.01

    Bought 46.02 Over for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5 at 0.5

  • 12:11 AM
    VMvmp1212
    $5.00

    Bought 10 Over for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5 at 0.5

  • 12:04 AM
    SUsuperaiapi
    $2.67

    Bought 5.134616 Las Vegas Aces for Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) at 0.52

  • 12:04 AM
    GOGoodShopper
    $5.10

    Bought 9.8 Las Vegas Aces for Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) at 0.52

  • 12:04 AM
    ALalexma11224
    $7.00

    Bought 14.285715 Phoenix Mercury for Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) at 0.49

  • 12:01 AM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $2.68

    Bought 5.71 Over for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 at 0.47

Sep 24, 2026

  • 11:45 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $2.80

    Bought 5.71 Over for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5 at 0.49

  • 11:44 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $2.80

    Bought 5.71 Over for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 174.5 at 0.49

  • 11:44 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $3.96

    Bought 7.61 Las Vegas Aces for Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) at 0.52

  • 11:36 PM
    FEfeira8
    $1.00

    Bought 1.851852 Under for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 175.5 at 0.54

  • 11:28 PM
    KEkeepss
    $16.80

    Bought 32.307693 Las Vegas Aces for Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) at 0.52

  • 11:27 PM
    DCdc8383
    $3.93

    Bought 7.55 Las Vegas Aces for Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) at 0.52

Whales Wallets That Are Betting on This Event

SA1
Sassy-Bucket
Event PnL
+$125.42
Volume
$25,084.25
Positions
Phoenix Mercury
NI2
nigiri99
Event PnL
-$58.16
Volume
$14,008.00
Positions
Las Vegas AcesUnderPhoenix Mercury+1
QU3
QuentinChen
Event PnL
-$55.08
Volume
$11,015.00
Positions
Phoenix Mercury
MO4
mooseborzoi
Event PnL
+$1.81
Volume
$10,701.05
Positions
Las Vegas Aces
AN5
AnonymousUsername
Event PnL
+$29.74
Volume
$5,947.00
Positions
Las Vegas Aces
HO6
HomeRunHazard
Event PnL
+$33.38
Volume
$5,847.62
Positions
Las Vegas AcesUnderOver+1
0C7
0x0c15…3603
Event PnL
-$14.07
Volume
$4,954.29
Positions
Under
HE8
0xheavy888
Event PnL
+$15.00
Volume
$3,000.00
Positions
Las Vegas Aces

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current market consensus on "Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury"?

As of the latest update, Jackie Young: Assists O/U 5.5 leads the field as the frontrunner with a 9,995% win probability, followed by Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury at 9,980% and Chelsea Gray: Assists O/U 5.5 at 9,950%. Total trading volume for this pool has reached $158.9K, indicating deep liquidity and high trader engagement.

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