Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Trump pardon anyone by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 9,100% chance of winning. October 31 follows in second place at 4,900%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (9,100%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 9,100¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 31 (4,900%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 31 maintains a 4,900% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,900¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.