UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 8,650% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 1,350%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $221.3K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (8,650%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 8,650¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (1,350%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 1,350% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 1,350¢.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.