UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, No is dominating the market with an overwhelming 90% chance of winning. Yes follows in second place at 10%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $285.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• No (90%): Currently commanding the highest probability, No is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 90¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Yes (10%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Yes maintains a 10% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 10¢.

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome No currently trades at 90%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 82.2%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -7.8%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies Yes as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 10% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 17.8% — yielding an impressive +7.8% EV Gap.