Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, ↑$975B is dominating the market with an overwhelming 37.5% chance of winning. ↑$1.025T follows in second place at 8.5%, while ↓$875B sits in third with 4.5%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $82.7K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• ↑$975B (37.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, ↑$975B is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 38¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $22.2K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• ↑$1.025T (8.5%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, ↑$1.025T maintains a 8.5% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 9¢.
• ↓$875B (4.5%): Sitting in third place with a 4.5% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward ↓$875B, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~49.5%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes ↑$1.125T (2.9%), ↑$1.525T (2.4%), and ↓$825B (2.1%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like ↑$1.275T are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.

If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.

If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.

If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period.

Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using official regular-hours trading prices published for the company’s listed equities on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).

If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.

If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.

The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be the relevant Market Cap figure displayed on https://www.nasdaq.com/ as well as official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.

Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome ↑$975B currently trades at 37.5%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 25.3%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -12.3%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies ↓$875B as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 4.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 18.1% — yielding an impressive +13.6% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include ↓$825B (EV Gap: +10%) and ↓$750B (EV Gap: +7.7%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.