Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 3% chance of winning. October 31 follows in second place at 0.4%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $118.1K, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (3%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 3¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $874 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• October 31 (0.4%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, October 31 maintains a 0.4% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 0¢.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.

Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies October 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 0.4% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 19.3% — yielding an impressive +18.9% EV Gap.