María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, December 31 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 23.5% chance of winning. September 30 follows in second place at 10%, while August 31 sits in third with 2.9%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $6.4M, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• December 31 (23.5%): Currently commanding the highest probability, December 31 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 24¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $6.9K in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• September 30 (10%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, September 30 maintains a 10% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 10¢.
• August 31 (2.9%): Sitting in third place with a 2.9% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward August 31, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

While human consensus and speculative volume shape the broader prediction market, our quantitative algorithms offer a data-driven counter-perspective. By analyzing fundamental signals, underlying trends and historical distributions, our AI Valuation model calculates an independent “Fair Value” probability for each outcome.

Comparing this Fair Value against the current Trade Value uncovers major disparities — known as the Expected Value (EV) Gap. Contracts with a positive EV Gap represent statistically underpriced outcomes, whereas a negative EV Gap flags a potential market overreaction.

Top AI Alpha & Mispriced Arbitrage Opportunities

Based on the latest data model run, several key contracts stand out with significant deviations:

• The Most Overvalued Outcome August 31 currently trades at 2.9%, but our AI places its Fair Value at just 1%. This creates a large negative EV Gap of -1.9%, suggesting the crowd may be overhyping this outcome and driving the premium too high.
• The Best Value Play (Highest EV) Our model identifies December 31 as the premium value opportunity on the board. While the market only assigns it a 23.5% trading probability, our AI’s Fair Value assessment sits at 39.8% — yielding an impressive +16.3% EV Gap.
• Under-the-Radar Dark Horses Other notable discrepancies include September 30 (EV Gap: +7.1%). These long-tail opportunities are heavily discounted by the live order books despite stronger statistical backing from our predictive model.